Trading NFP Thursday High Resistance Liquidity Runs transcript

Well, good morning folks. How are you? I hope you're doing well. So, I'm going to be looking to go short here. I'm going to give it a chance to see if we can tap into that new week opening gap low. I'd prefer to get a short there or at least start one there. And it looks like it's about to accommodate me. Thank you so much. and the stop loss will be just north of the high of that new week opening gap. Now, the premise is the market's reacting off of some bogus number.

I'm sure I don't even know what the employment data is cuz I don't trust this administration's uh information that's disseminated. Uh it's all fake. So, I'm just utilizing the the concept of knowing that this data that came out here at 8:30, they're propelling the idea and selling the myth to the public. And what I'm looking at is if you go over here, see all these bodies? They're kind of flush. So, those relative equal lows, that's where I'm looking for.

I want to see price draw from up here all the way down to there. Okay. So, essentially what I'm doing is I'm shorting at the intraday high with the expectation that we're going to go lower. Now, if we go another pass higher than this one, I'll add to the short. But I want to see this little gap in here behave like an inversion fair value gap. So, I'll draw the target down to that. So, that's not bad for one contract, right?

I like that it stop stays the same same price. And if you look at what we've done with the opening range gap, we're at a trading hours opening range gap. Here's the 9:30 opening right here. So if we take that there to There. Okay. negative 2.5 should have called for that level up there, but it's stopping right at the new week opening gap below where I said I wanted to start a short and now we're in this little area here where I said I want to see it act as an inversion fair value gap.

So this is weakness and we want to see it behave like I said inversion for V gap. I'm going to take that middle dotted line out because it's not necessary. It's too small of a range to be visually observing. We have relative equal lows here and we have relative equal lows here. If it's going to go below here, then it's reasonable to anticipate it's going to go below here. So I can take one contract off right there. Okay.

Nothing complex, nothing very difficult shown here. Now, I'm doing these executions on a day I said I wouldn't do any because I got questioned by a sincere students inquiry asking if they follow the rules that I teach with that new students shouldn't be participating in trading on non-farm payroll weeks post 11:00 a.m. Eastern time on Wednesday because it's difficult. It's a high high degree of manipulation on Thursday and Friday of non-farm payroll weeks.

So because of that very nature as an educator I teach try not to participate on those days or if you do expect a great deal of adversity and don't be taken back by you know the hardships that these days will present to you because I can get it wrong even on these days. Why? Because there's manual intervention. There's an active participation on the part of the market makers, the real market makers, not dealers. Um, a minute.

I'm watching this in here because I might want to put on something extra. I'll do that. And I'm not showing where my stop loss is. I apologize. Let me scroll this down a little bit. We're going to bring this down to just above that high. So, we we reduce the risk. And now we'll let this cook. I don't want to build it any larger than that. If this pans out, that's certainly good enough to celebrate a Memorial weekend, right?

Or what is it? Labor Day. Yeah, Labor Day. I always get [clears throat] these mixed up. Now look at that. Find that and wipe off. [laughter] [snorts] Find that and wipe off, children. Bro, I'm in my 40s. You called me a child. Now I'm talking to the guys that like to talk makeup nonsense. So again, no market replay. Nothing like that's required. Um, if you look at this area here, I'd like to see this buy side of balance sell side efficiency much like that little gap right there.

Look how it behaved. Beautiful, isn't it? I want to see this same premise be utilized in this range. So, I want to see that act as an inversion for your bay gap. Did I draw it up low? Looks like I did. So, we want to see it work its way down through and close below the low of it, which would be this candlesticks high. So, close below 29,292.25 validates this as an inversion fair value gap. Then, we would not want to see any candles be buried in the upper half once it closes below that.

Okay. Now, I have a whole lot of stuff on this chart, but it'll it'll allow me to communicate the importance of knowing what you're looking for and not looking at other things. So, a new week opening gap drawing up to that after the uh 8:30 news over here where they use for employment data. All of this is trying to sell the idea that that data is, you know, worth trusting. and I don't I don't trust it. So, we're looking for lower prices.

A close below this again will allow me to bring the stop a little bit lower. It'll go just that mean threshold, which is a half of this up close candle. So, we'll just say it's uh 29,340 even. I'll use that as a stop once we close below here. And again, the reason why I put my mouse cursor up here is to show that it's not market replay because you can pretend trade and I already have the data knowing where it's going to go and do market replay and it kind of shows you one candlestick at a time in a very stunted or stilted fashion.

Not, you know, alive and and you know, fluid like it is here. You can see the candlesticks countdown to close over here. Every little fluctuation inside the candlesticks being reflected. Market replay doesn't do that. And I know I apologize for the people that's been here for a while. I'm not explaining it to you. You're just going to have to let me do these things for the new new students that are always coming in. So, we're working our high of Tuesday of August 25th first present fair gap.

It's it's okay to to do that. Why? because we didn't close below this potential inversion for bay gap. So it means any retracement it has to go to logical levels. So it can wick outside of this up to this blue line which is a quadrant level. See what it did? Spiked up to that quadrant level. And look at the reaction. Find that in any other school of thought, folks, because it's not there. Just good old ICT's logic. And you can thank the father for it because that's where I got it from.

Now again we we want to see the close below that inversion fair value gap and because there is a key gradient level which is an octant level 375 level I'd like to see it close below that as well not just barely below we have equal lows now here. My stop loss is not in jeopardy at all. I'm not concerned about the stop. I'm more concerned about is price still telling me that it wants to go lower. And there's your lower close below the octant level like I wanted and below here.

Okay. So, now I'm going to drop the stop down like I told you. 340 even. There you go. So now the worst that can happen is I'll make $135 going into Labor Day weekend. Not a bad deal, is it? All right. So we've made our way down into half of Wednesday of last week, August 26th. First presented fair value gap. Okay, there you go. Now, there's a lot of sellside liquidity here and below here. So, I believe that we have a great deal of interest to get down there.

I hold three contracts and I just want to make sure that we have um a nice profitable session because it is non-farm payroll week. So, I'm going to change that one contract to just taking out that low. I want to buy two of them back. And that'll leave one for a runner. And that'll take me down into the target down there. Okay. So, while it's nice to be able to say if I held all three contracts, I could potentially make $15,495.

Uh, I want to go to the lowest hanging fruit objective, which is this. and then I can see if it wants to give me a bonus by going down to that target, but I don't require it to go down here. That's managing trade expectation versus once. What you want is irrelevant. Uh we just came down just got real close to the opening range gap high. We want to see it wilt through that. I work in the upper half of that Wednesday, August 26th, the first present value gap.

So, it can wick up and touch the low of that inversion fair gap I drew over here. So it can it can spike up into that and put a wick in here. That's okay. We don't want to see any bodies in the upper half here at all any on any retracement. Preferably, we don't even want to see it come back and touch it at all. If it does that and it keeps breaking lower and goes down below these lows, we're really really weak. That's like the best case scenario.

Look at the bodies on that octant at 29,291.25. That's perfect. Surely that's in my golf, right? [laughter] Oh, it's silly. >> [snorts] >> We don't want to see any discount sensitivity inside of that regular trading hours opening range gap between 29,249 half and 29,194 quarter. We want to see it just completely like a knife hot knife through butter just go right down through it. That is indicative of wanting to get us down back into August 24th first present value gap around that 29,110 level down here.

All right, we're bumping up to the low of that shadow where that blue box shaded area which is the daily chart volume of balance I gave you last night and it's the overlap of Wednesday August 26 first everybody got see that reaction off of that right here and it's the low of that um inefficiency So, we're reacting right off of that to the tick. Again, we don't want to see any retracements that leave a body up in the upper half of this sell bounce by side efficiency.

No bodies per buried in this half. Okay. So, we have a market maker cell model here. So, we should be starting to see second stage redistribution sending prices lower. So you can see I I sold in smart money reversal there there and then I added lowrisk cell right there. Okay. and then first stage distribution and we're inside of second stage redistribution forming which will be the longest protraction of this market maker cell model and I don't look at that as the original consolidation I don't look at that as the original consolidation um but I'm treating my first profit partial as it is but holding for the bodies down here that are basically sharing the same price level which just looks too it's too perfect down here and I don't I don't think that these types of levels stay intact.

So they they engineer that to make you trust that as support and then later t at a later time they come back and they victimize those individuals that have their stop losses or they have an interest to go short um that they're going to want to see that level break before they do it. So, it's it's all rhyme and reason. It's not guessing. It's not borrowing somebody else's logic. It's all my logic. All engineered. Now, once we take out the regular trading hours opening range gap low at 29,194.25, 25.

Then I'll lower the stop down to just above Tuesday's August 25th first resent gap consequent encouragement which is just above the inversion fair gap. Notice that we didn't trade to the low of it here. See that? It failed to get there. That's bearish. That's real bearish. And there's no need for market profile. No level two stuff required. No footprint. Look. Look at that price right there. Okay. 29,291 quarter. What's the What's the open on that candlestick?

Exactly that. What's the high of that? One tick above. But the close, look at it. 29,290.75 below that level. That's respect. That's definite respect. and it failed to get to that candlestick's high, which is by definition an inversion fair gap. So, we want to see can we stay in the lower half of Wednesday of last week's first percent. And this is what I've been doing all along in front of all you guys when I used to sit out here on X and call every candlestick one candlestick at a time.

Um, we're we're marching to a a script and sheet music that most people can't see. My stop loss is way outside the scope of Jeopardy. It's anchored to first stage distribution of the market maker saw model. I'm not in a hurry to trace it down lower. I'm allowing it to breathe and move around a little bit. We're in the second stage redistribution, which means it's going to be the biggest, the most animated portion of the sell-off.

So, I'm just allowing the market to to find its legs to go lower. We're flirting with the low of regular trading hours opening range gap high. I said that wrong. The low. We're flirting with the regular trading hours opening range gap high. And this is the low of it. So, the gap is here. Like if you were looking at it like this is the gap. Okay. So, we want to see it wilt down through that, go through the lower portions here, erode through this wick, and get down in here to the low of reg trading hours open range gap and then clear up the inefficiency, not inefficient, the uh the sell side liquidity below here.

That's what I'm looking for. that it bumped the stops that are just above 29,291 quarter. My stop loss is not in jeopardy. None of this changes the narrative that it's likely to still go lower. We do have a sibby here with that volume and bounce low right in here. So, it's okay for it to retrace back up in there, but I'm watching this upper half of this inefficiency because I don't want to see any bodies left up there.

So, what it just did is it's returned back up inside this area here. So, you can see with experience why I don't draw all these things on the chart. And I understand if you're brand new or if you're lazy. And I'm going to say that and I don't care if I hurt your feelings because you know, you know you're lazy if you're lazy. Okay. Um I'm watching every little detail. How is this any different from you watching every potential support and resistance level that would be utilized if you were a support and resistance trader?

There's always new levels forming. Okay. So, um what I'm doing is I'm reading all these individual candlesticks and making sure that all the narrative still supports the idea of going lower. Yes, we went up into this area up here. Did we touch the middle of that inversion for V gap? No. Did it get to the middle of this cibby here? Yes. Did it put a body there? No. So, these are all little details I use to justify why I still hold on to the position and don't get afraid of getting stopped out.

My stop is way up here. So, you say, "Well, what happens if it goes up here and stops you out?" You could have got out with Yeah, you're always going to have that. There's always going to be somebody that's going to come and critique you after the fact, but they're not selling the high of the day. I am. You can't capture the full range unless you risk the trade holding for the full range. I mean, it's there's no way around that.

And listening to people that can wait till after I do something or after I call something and then they want to come in and give their two cents after the fact, that's not somebody worth listening to. either be doing better than I am with accuracy and precision or just keep your opinion to yourself because I'm not swayed by it. I'm going to put the microphone on mute just for a moment. I got to go grab something to drink.

And remember, this is permissible. We just don't want to see any bodies laid in this upper half. Not that I'm going to change anything. The stop still stays where it is. All right, I'm actually going to add to that right there. And if I'm wrong, I get stopped out with $535 for a steak dinner. I think they're just deeply retracing that. And then now we'll start seeing it break down. Ideally, I didn't want to see any bodies buried in the upper half of that inefficiency, but I am incorporating Tuesday, the 25th of August's first resistive value gap.

So, it came all the way back up to the high of that. So, it's just one more retracement inside of this to a logical level. And I'm not concerned about stopped out. That kind of sells the idea that retail wants to see it go higher, which is wonderful because that's juxtop position to what I believe smart money is anticipating, which is running down to 29,178 minimum. I'm going to step away just for a moment. So, I'll be quiet for a minute.

I have to take the pups out as otherwise they're going to start crawling all over me while I'm sitting here and then it's going to distract me. So, bear with me for a few minutes.