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Let's Talk Money! with Joseph Hogue, CFA · @josephhogue
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but definitely overseas. I like it. The stock is It got a 50% haircut first half of the year. Climbing back now. As we're recording this, it just shot from 90 to 107 in the past 6 weeks. So, uh Yeah, with a tailwind of that, I'm with
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He took He's taking 97% of his pay is tied directly to the stock performance. So, right out of the gate, you got a guy whose interests are aligned with yours. You know, you don't have some CEO making 25 million a year. He's He's going to make money if you make money. That's good.
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the downside if they don't. The canary in the coal mine on this one is that there's 35 to 40% short interest stock. You know exactly what that viewers who don't, that means 35 to 40%
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Hey Bowtie Nation, a very special video for you today. It's hard enough to find one stock to buy. Finding five stocks that two investors agree on for a portfolio, that's like inviting your ex to your wedding as your plus one. There's going to be a fight. So, I'm challenging Ross Givens to bring his best five stocks to buy right now. Ross is a 20-year market veteran and a former JP Morgan VP of investment management. He's breaking down the big trends, the market opportunities, and the stocks to buy on his channel there. Welcome, Ross. Thank you for
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Hey Bowtie Nation, a very special video for you today. It's hard enough to find one stock to buy. Finding five stocks that two investors agree on for a portfolio, that's like inviting your ex to your wedding as your plus one. There's going to be a fight. So, I'm challenging Ross Givens to bring his best five stocks to buy right now. Ross is a 20-year market veteran and a former JP Morgan VP of investment management. He's breaking down the big trends, the market opportunities, and the stocks to buy on his channel there.
Welcome, Ross. Thank you for coming on, and I want to get right into that idea. The big picture trends where where you see the biggest opportunities before before we target those stocks to buy. >> Yeah, and thanks for having me on, Joseph. Big fan of your channel as well. So, uh good to talk to you in person. Yeah, and that that's the big thing with trading, right? I mean, we we we we can dial down the specifics and the chart patterns and how to get real precise with your buys and your sells, but if you're targeting the wrong stuff, you you're just swimming against the current, right?
You're going to have a difficult time. So, finding those big trends, for example, we called gold back in 2024 and that broke breakout started. You throw a dollar to the gold mining sector and you did well. Um right now, I think some of the big areas, obviously AI has run, but we're seeing, you know, moves in copper, we're seeing moves uh uh in in the inflationary trade, and some of the stuff there. So, um I think there are some big trends playing out.
There's also some big trends that are finishing, right? And that's that's becoming very apparent, especially this last week. We saw the big uh uh uh pullback in a lot of those AI infrastructure names. We saw Leopold's fund get liquidated. Like you the Sandisks and the Microns falling 30, 40, 50%. So, um definitely time to find some new opportunities. So, I I welcome the chance to get in front of you and audience here. >> Great.
So, I like that that we're going a little bit outside of the typical, you know, AI stocks that stock picks, things like that. So, outside the normal trends, finding those a little bit longer, more durable trends. Let's talk about the stocks now because we got a challenge here. An idea I got from someone out there in the Bowtie Nation, a comment to find the five stocks that both of us would buy. So, we're going to each pitch our favorite stocks.
Here's the catch though. If we don't agree on a top stock, or that it's one of our favorites, too, it doesn't make the list. Let's get started with your first stock there. >> All right. So, I'm going to start with Freeport-McMoRan, ticker FCX. Now, we all know AI has been the trade of the decade. We've seen the runs in the semis, we've seen in the infrastructure, we've seen even the nuclear last year as a power source.
But, regardless of who wins, whether it's Claude, whether it's ChatGPT, whichever model, whoever uses it best, the fact is all this stuff has to get And it's easy to get too focused on the exciting stuff, the robots and the the the the AI models, and forget about the physical. All right, this stuff has to be built, the data centers have to be constructed, no matter who does it. And copper's a huge component. And what I don't think a lot of people realize is there is a big projected shortage in the copper market.
And this is happening at the same time when demand soaring. And estimates say AI alone could boost global copper demand by 50% by 2040. And this is not something we can just ramp up production. It's a real bottleneck because, unlike crude oil, we can just drill more, drill, you know, these these copper mines are a huge undertaking. It take 15 to 20 years to get one up and running. Even if we started today, we wouldn't have any meaningful copper additional output anyway till the late '30s.
And to give you an idea of how big this demand is, Amazon Web Services, which is obviously biggest server earth, they signed a direct supply deal with Rio Tinto to resurrect a dead copper mine and lock up all that supply. So, here you've got the best logistics company on earth saying, "We're not sure we'll be able to find the copper. We're going to get Rio Tinto to bring an old mine back and and and buy all that demand." So, I think there's a huge huge uh demand for copper.
EVs use a bunch of it. Robotics is going to use a bunch of it. We're electrifying everything. The grid needs updates. Uh and you know, supply is pretty much inelastic. You take something like gold. If gold goes to 6, 8, 10,000 dollars an ounce, all right, you don't buy the necklace. Don't buy the ring. You don't not build the data center cuz gold went from six or copper went from $6 a pound to eight. And so, this to me is a monster tailwind.
I want to show you I'll show you a quick chart here to get your input on this cuz I know um uh you're more fundamentals guy, but I'm curious here if you I I lean heavily into the tech technical. So, this is This is copper future. And typically what you see in these super cycles, you get these big oppor- is when you get a huge run in price. So, in this case, let me turn the move. Went from you know, four and a half a pound to six and a quarter.
Big, big run. And then you get these little consolidation where the supply is being sucked up and the buyers are getting in and it's kind of tightening like a like a coil spring getting ready to release. Now, this happened right as things were escalating with Iran. So, I think it's been held back a little bit. But we've got sort of like this base-on-base consolidation forming here in copper and it's just part of a macro tailwind.
So, copper obviously looks very good. You take a look at FCX, very similar. And this is just what we see in these trends. We see a big move higher, period of consolidation, a move higher, a period of consolidation, kind of that stair-step pattern we see in stocks. And and FCX to me has been sitting there just absorbing supply. Uh as institutions build positions for all of 2026 and it's going to be I think a big winner as copper prices rise.
Uh and so anyway, that that's my that's one of mine, FCX, but I'm curious your your thoughts on it. >> Sure, I like it. You know, it's one of the purest large-cap plays on copper. Not only do you have the at the rising demand from copper, which not just critical for AI infrastructure, but for the whole electrification, manufacturing, reshoring, for so many trends that it is going to be, you know, underlying strength on that.
But then you've got the leverage on a a minor itself. So, FCX management can leverage those copper prices up higher into higher higher earnings. World-class giants like that Grasberg de Sur where they projects which like you said are impossible to replicate at this point. They are so massive, it takes so long to to start a new field. And and you see like you said, Amazon actually trying to bring dead assets back to life.
They are so they are so valuable right there. It's got just this massive scale helping that low-cost production, the earnings growth. Surprisingly after a 58% run the in the price this year, it's not terribly expensive. 20 times this year's price this year's earnings expected. You know, 5-year average about 21, as high as 35 times last year. So, I do see that that recent consolidation that that I think is a lot of macro fears around the economy, around a slowdown, uh that are just building up.
And as we see those trends keep on keep on building, I think this is going to keep on going. You know, you've got a forecast for another 30% profit growth next year to $4 a share. So, you just take those those normal valuations and the and just leverage the stock higher. >> That's right. Yeah, and if the price again, if prices copper rises, those climb very quickly. You got to think it's it's operational leverage. If it costs you three bucks a pound to get it to to to mine the stuff and you sell it for six, it's a $3 profit.
If it goes up 50%, your profit goes up 100 why these miners can free versions of the price of the So, if we're right on the price of copper, everything, you know, the the demand supply-demand dynamics play out the way we expected, I think we've got a big But that's I got it easy. You you said yes, my first pick, I feel good. >> Follows it follows right into place. We got one on in the books right now. Mine, I got to go with my favorite company and my favorite long-term growth trend.
That's cybersecurity. Might not be as sexy as AI, but like Thanos, this is inevitable. Overall tech spending in cybersecurity grows at about a 12% clip. That's not exciting, but that is accelerating with the threat of AI in in a lot of the segments. A lot of the segments CrowdStrike dominates in or growing even faster, 20-30% a year. In fact, Lee Klarich, that's head of head of product at Palo Alto Networks, PANW, warned 3 to 5 month There's a 3 to 5 month window for companies to get in front of this coming AI-driven boom in cyberattacks.
We're already seeing that. Palo Alto was one of only two cybersecurity companies to get that private look into that Anthropic Mythos model before it was released to see the dangers there. Guess who was the other country? Cuz the other company? CrowdStrike, right? CRWD. And what's what that wanted? That was 3 to 5 month clock for companies to protect themselves. Started ticking probably about 2 months ago in May. Google just last month stopped a massive attack from AI.
A mass exploitation event they're calling it. And warned hackers that already using these available tools to exploit the software. Even Apple, just long believed to be an unbreakable ecosystem, has warned that Mythos is coming and and it's already found a weakness hackers could exploit. Of CrowdStrike leads in some of the fastest growing segments of cybersecurity, including cloud, endpoint, its own agentic with its Charlotte AI cybersecurity, quickly becoming the standard in the in the industry.
Now, the one downside I would say on this, and it's something I always have to point out talking about cybersecurity stocks, that kind of growth and the cybersecurity trend is not going to be cheap. All of these cybersecurity stocks trade for pretty ridiculous valuations actually. A CrowdStrike priced at about 192 times earnings expected over the next year. I even adjusted for that 20% plus revenue growth, it's still on a PEG, so price to earnings to growth ratio about six and a half times.
Now, that's not quite as expensive as Palo Alto or Cloudflare, but also not as cheap as Fortinet or Zscaler. And you're going to pay for that growth and the conviction that cybersecurity spending is going to continue to take this one higher. More interested to see what the charts say about CrowdStrike and your opinion on this. >> Well, yeah, I mean both these stocks are a bit extended at the moment, but I I 100% agree with you on cybersecurity made it.
And and you're right, these are so tough to value because the say they're seeing such growth that what is a fair multiple? What's a good earnings multiple? Before it, I mean I'm I'm looking at Palo Alto's numbers now. They were steadily like a 14 15% year-over-year grower. Then they then then Q1 31% growth, forecasting 32. Like their their growth rate doubled in a quarter. And and you talked about it exactly. It's this the agentic AIs breaking out of the sandbox and hacking stuff on their own.
We saw this over at Open AI with the uh Hugging whatever the heck the thing was and then >> The Hugging Face, yep. >> Yeah, the Hugging Face, right? It didn't even connect to the internet, the thing breaks out, hacks another another company's database to find the answers to this little quiz. So they're like, "This is scaring companies." You're talking about big Fortune 500 companies with social security numbers and credit cards and trade secrets and formulas and all kinds of stuff.
So yeah, I saw I saw the Raj CrowdStrike Palo Alto, they're getting their phones are ringing off the hook from big companies, from Coca-Colas and Mastercards wanting them to come in and secure their network. So I'm not going to take a stab at evaluation. I think you buy these here. I like Palo Alto. I like CrowdStrike as well. I I I don't know which one's the better. If you're saying the valuation's better at Palo Alto, they've probably got a longer track record.
I'm 100% proven that. Good with that. >> Excellent. So there's two in the books. This is just This is too easy. Uh why don't you give us our our third stock then? >> I think you're going to push back on me because you're a fundamentals guy and this one is not probably going to pass your test today's turn, but hear me out on this. The company, does nothing to do with tech, is Jack in the Box. Yes, the same burger fry company, ticker JACK.
Now, here's my case for one, it's an incredibly cheap stock in terms of its sales. So, if you look at the fast food group, you know, you've got everything from McDonald's to Wendy's and so on. Jack in the Box trades at 0.22 times sales. In other words, if I bought the whole company, they would do five times that much sales every year. Papa John's is the next worst, and it's at 0.5. Wendy's is 0.6. Starbucks is three.
McDonald's is seven. They're at 0.22 times sales. They're very, very, very Secondly, this stock is in the middle of a big turnaround. Uh they've been absolutely blasted the last couple of years. In fact, let me uh hold on. I'll pull up a chart here and show you uh what I'm seeing with this just in terms of a technical standpoint. Uh so, Jack in the Box here, let's scroll back. I mean, it's been murdered, right? This thing has been taken out behind the woodshed and beaten.
A $100 stock 3 years ago, it fell all the way to 10. But, what we get is that same kind of consolidation pattern down here off the lows once the buyers are stepping in. So, you see the the dips becoming shallower. You see the series of of moves. I did a video on this here. Kind of broke out here. It it bounced to a retest and pushing higher. So, you've got a stock trading at an extremely low price for a reason. And that reason is they've got a lot of debt.
People are worried they're not going to make it. Got a billion dollars in debt against a 2.5 market cap. Now, they've done a few things to mitigate that. They've they've uh pushed the uh expiration of that debt out to 2029 to give them some time to turn around. They brought in the CEO that that saved Taco Bell uh to try to help them there. And we're starting to see, again, not growth yet, but we're seeing a company that was seeing same-store sales decline and decline and declining to kind of flatlining.
And listen, there's some risk in this. This is a true investment. You're buying it dirt cheap. And if it if it comes back to life, if they turn things around even a little bit, you're going to get a good upside. But, there's absolutely risk on the downside if they don't. The canary in the coal mine on this one is that there's 35 to 40% short interest stock. You know exactly what that viewers who don't, that means 35 to 40% of the float, of all the shares that they're trading, are being held short by against the stock.
And what can happen as we learned with GameStop back in 2021 is that the short squeeze. This price starts going up, they're panicking, they got to get out of their shorts, they have to buy the stock back to exit. And so all the short sellers buying it while all the retails buying drives the price higher and creates a squeeze. So, it is in my opinion, big upside, limited down at the current price, trading around 17 bucks a share.
I don't think you're going to let this one slide through your filter, but I'm curious your take on it stuff cuz you're a I respect your opinion. >> You you know what? This it could be this could be the the first one. Um it's I agree this one this one will make millionaires. If it comes out, if it works out, it will make millionaires. It's a great brand. Every time I visit calif- family in California, everyone wants to go to to Jack in the Box.
And and we just got our first one here in Tampa. I know they're expanding nationwide. Deep value potential in that turnaround story. And and even small improvements in those same store sales, the margins really can move the needle on this one. Like you said, 30 40% uh short shorted interest in this, that the bears are in control. If they lose that control, uh this this stock is going straight up. But, there are some big risks here, too.
And uh and maybe I'm maybe I'm just not brave enough to uh to take a risk on this. The reason why the stock has fallen so much, you know, fast food is already extremely competitive. You know, we've got dollar menus at most of these places still. You know, when's the last time you could buy anything else except fast food for a dollar, right? So, profitability is tighter than Well, I'm not going to finish that metaphor.
But but even competitors haven't done great. They're still managed to provide some returns. You know, Yum Brands up 22% over the past 5 years, McDonald's up 11%, Chipotle up about 4%. So we do have some company specific problems with Jack in the Box with its 85% loss, you know, so management gets missed guidance in three of the last four earnings reports which might not be an issue with this new management and a lot is riding on on new management if they can turn that around.
But the 23% drop in revenue expected for this year is a major haircut they're going to have to work out. What always worries me on this kind of turnaround plays and you talked about that is the debt and the cash flow. You know, Jack owes just over $3 billion in long-term debt on the balance sheet. They've pushed that out to 2029, but the bill always comes due, right? That's against just $2.6 billion in long-term assets that and 660 million that that is goodwill of that.
So of the of those assets, more than more than half a billion dollars are goodwill. Probably not worth quite as much as they're they're being reported there. That operational cash flow fell to about 96 million in the last 12 months and we're looking at just 69 million in balance sheet cash. So company is selling off some of its underperforming assets, but but also expanding into other areas. Like I said, we're getting them here in Florida.
So probably wondering how they're going to kind of manage that cash flow in the near term if they're trying to trying to expand. It is definitely a Hail Mary play and God bless anybody that that gets it right because they are going to make a lot of money. If management can surprise them, the stock is a potential 10x, but just not loving the odds here and a lot of probably again a lot of it is me. My scaredy pants just would have to avoid this one. >> Nothing wrong with that.
I'll take your X on that one. It's fine. If you guys do those of you that follow my channel know we've been kind of taking positions in this. We'll see how it plays out. It is absolutely a long shot bet. It's not one you want to bet the farm on, but it does have a lot of upside. I'm going to try to bring us back together on the Alibaba Group ticker BABA. You know, I get a a lot of pushback whenever I recommended this one because cuz it's a Chinese company, but you know, the fact is and this is going to piss off a lot of people, but China's looking more capitalist than the US these days.
You got to You got to kind of think about that. Look, both both governments are supporting companies. Both companies both are investing in their own companies in the in their countries. Both are trying to restrict the other in the in the other country. So, I'm a patriot to my bones, but I invest with my head and Alibaba is a buy to lead and what I think is going to be the next biggest shift in AI which already starting to hear a little bit about that.
It's because in the trend for token maxing which was just at the beginning part of this year, companies are blowing out the AI budget running their agents at no matter what the cost. We're now seeing a shift to value maxing especially after one of the Fortune 500 companies that has yet to been unnamed a $5 whoopsie where it accidentally spent its entire AI budget in one month. So, from this we're so we heard from the Databricks CEO Ali Ghodsi in June, companies are excited about AI agents, but they're being forced to optimize their cost something called value maxing and and quoted he quoted in that article to CNBC that Chinese models are extremely popular among the customers.
We're starting to see that play out I think Alibaba has actually mentioned it a few times with its growth. That's because a lot of the Chinese AI models including Alibaba's Qwen are called open source. Okay, so you've got the frontier the closed source AI models are run directly by Anthropic by OpenAI that's run on their hardware and data centers and through their paid models. Open source AI though can be downloaded.
It runs on a company's own servers. So, while that means higher setup costs on for the hardware, it can also save companies millions of dollars in costs of running those programs. They don't have to constant constantly be paying to run those programs. You're not paying for the token cost to GPT or Claude. You're only paying for your own hardware and electricity costs. So, open source also comes with the added benefit that you're not locked into anyone vendor and it's a lot safer.
Your data stays in-house with you. Alibaba's Queen model is a hybrid thinking customizable framework used by developers and enterprise customers recently surpassed 700 million downloads as we're seeing that global shift to AI to lower AI costs expand. In benchmarks third-party test Queen consistently ranks right up there with Claude GPT. It's recently released that it thinks it's a it's model is even better than Claude in some tests.
Now while users can use the and download Queen and run it on their own servers, it's open source. Basically, they just download it. Growth and usage here also translates to benefits for Alibaba. You know, most directly into hosting through Alibaba's cloud division. Alibaba also manages deployments, develops initial setups, agents, a lot of these things that are going to bring revenue and profits in that. So, think of Queen kind of like a gateway product, right?
Alibaba is giving away the cow, but then it's going to charge users for services like milking and pasture when they want it. You know, right? Besides all this, Alibaba benefits from using Queen across its own e-commerce empire for search, advertising, and sales. Now forecasts are for Baba to to grow revenue at about 10 or 11% pace this year. Not a growth stock kind of kind of trend that we usually like to see, which I think it's going to be grossly underestimated though.
You know, against a forecast of 169 billion dollars in revenue. Stock trades for just 1.8 times on that price to sales, which about 10% under the five-year average. So, not only do I think we see surprising growth from this, I think it's already a value stock. I think it takes this one back up to a multiple of two and a half times it hit last year and well past 150, maybe even past 200 dollars a share. >> Okay, so break down your case on Baba is they have an open source model.
So, they're not getting paid like Anthropic or the other But the money then comes because companies run it and they buy basically the compute rent servers from all of us. That's the idea. >> Yes, they're they're using AI cloud they're using Alibaba's cloud. They're using a setup, they're using other you know, other products, kind of tag along products that Alibaba is is selling through it. >> And I would I would assume they build theirs kind of optimized to really easy plug and play their own servers, their own >> Absolutely. >> Okay, I can get behind this.
You know, I like Baba just for the same reason I like Amazon or anything else. They They have a true moat around e-commerce. Maybe not here, I'm just Chinese stuff at 100 100 units a clip, but definitely overseas. I like it. The stock is It got a 50% haircut first half of the year. Climbing back now. As we're recording this, it just shot from 90 to 107 in the past 6 weeks. So, uh Yeah, with a tailwind of that, I'm with it.
I'll approve Baba. So, that's BABA. Uh we'll lock that in for number three. >> Number three, all right. Give us number four here. >> All right, number four. Now, I don't like the government. Okay, it is what it is. I don't like either side. I hate what they've done, mainly because if you judge them by their actions, not their words, it doesn't look And the fact is the federal government is going bankrupt. It's a hard fact.
It is undisputable math. We did $40 billion in debt. It grows every single year. One day, not this year, not next year, there's going to be some level to It just It has to happen, but no one's going to let that happen. Because it's political suicide. So, the only solution is the same one they've been running for 30 years. That's to print our way out of it. And so, you take 2025, 2026, very strong economy, solid GDP growth.
We don't have any global pandemic or anything crazy. And we still are spending two and a half to three trillion dollars more than we You'd have to You'd have to tax people at 90% to make this It just doesn't work. So, anyway, all that to say, all this printing, which is going to continue, and it's going to get worse if we get another COVID or something crazy leads to inflation. It's the only thing they increase the money supply and spending gets worse.
Uh to give you a few numbers, 10 per I'm sorry, 7% of all dollars in existence have been created in the 18 months since Trump started second. Following COVID, 20% of all dollars since George Washington were printed in a single That's the level we're getting. And so this is going to lead to to to hyperinflation. I don't like it. It is what it is, but the way around that is the only thing that has been a true currency and survived thousands of years and that is of Now, my pick here is going to be GDX, which is the gold miners ETF.
And the reason for this is twofold. One, as I said, gold is the only savior in hyperinflation. This pattern, we've seen this play out for 2,000 years. When the government starts spending more than they come in, it started with the Roman Empire with with all the wars they're fighting and taking care of the Republic and then they started diluting the dinars just like we print and dilute the value of the US dollar. That led to hyperinflation, that lost faith and it crashed, etc.
Same exact formula. Roman Empire, Ming Dynasty, we saw it in France, in in Weimar, Greece, Brazil, Argentina, most recently in Venezuela. Same exact formula. It will happen here. The question is when. So, this is part investment, part hedge, okay? So, GDX is an ETF. It's a basket of gold mining companies. And it stands to reason if gold rises, so do the The reason I like the miners is you get that operational leverage on the price of So, if gold right now is $4,000 an ounce.
Let's say it costs you $2,000 an ounce to get the stuff out of the ground, all in cost. Your profit is two. If gold goes up just 20% from 4,000 to 5,000 your profit, their profit, goes from 2,000 to 3,000. It goes up 50%. So, in a hyper-inflationary environment, which I would argue we're already beginning to get in, as you see gold run, these miners are going to be absolutely minting money. And I got one chart I wanted to show you just for fun to all of your viewers.
What I did is I had Claude create a chart of the S&P 500. But, it's not in dollars. It is in ounces. And so, what this is is the S&P 500 since 1971, when Nixon took us off the gold standard, priced in ounces of gold. It's the current price at the time. And what you see when priced in gold, the market has not grown. We printed so much money. You've got some population growth, so you get roughly printing plus GDP is the growth in the market.
Now, not I'm trying to scare anybody out of stocks, but like this is a scary graphic to think about since 1971. It the whole index is not worth any more and it's barely ever been above it other than the dot-com peak. So, this to me is a pretty good argument for wanting some kind of exposure in real money. You could just take a gold position. I'm going to go with GDX, the gold miners. And it it like you said, I mean their their their margins are fantastic today with with with the appreciation of gold.
Even down at 4,000 or 5,000, they're still making hand over fist money. So, if gold stays still, great. They let the coffers run and collect their profit. If gold starts running, it really gets silly, right? I mean, gold would have to fall to a massively low price in order to to put them in any kind of trouble. And if that happens, you're probably going to be making hand over fist cash other areas. So, all right. We good with adding this one? >> We got four.
It's uh it's almost too easy. Almost too easy to believe. I might I might throw a throw a wrench in this with this one cuz this is this is a Hail Mary, but you know, like Alibaba, Cloudflare, got to go with Cloudflare, ticker NET. It's going to pay play a shift in one of the biggest trends I'm seeing seeing coming, right? That trend in AI usage, companies forced to be more efficient with their agentic AI spending it and while Alibaba is more of the open-source model, Cloudflare still has some of its legacy cybersecurity in its growth.
The big mover here is going to be with the as an AI traffic controller. You know, I see Cloudflare's gateways sitting between the applications and those language models deciding where every request should go. And not only does this company help reduce those costs, but also reduces the latency time and improve reliability with its dynamic routing. Now, Cloudflare has a massive global network across 300 plus cities positioned to serve about 95% of the world's internet-connected population.
So, if this trend plays out, if we do need kind of a an agentic AI referee to help companies make the best uh the best decisions, Cloudflare's going to be right there. Uh growth is there if it can capture that market. Forecast for about 30% revenue growth this year to 2.8 billion in-line earnings growth of about $1.20 share per share. Like CrowdStrike, that growth isn't cheap, though, with the stock trading at a ridiculous 226 times those forecasted earnings.
So, at some point here, you just got to say enough. I'm sorry, that's just too expensive. Uh there is that valuation risk and I'd really like to see a dip before buying heavy, but I I do own the shares. I'll hold on to them for as long as that trend is coming. >> Well, I respect your your your move here in in in Cloudflare and the story you write makes sense. What worries me is we're starting to see some money kind of go out of the infrastructure space and and just at this valuation, you you know, they're profit what?
Quarter 25 28 cents a quarter, like you said, 200 something times earnings. You're really paying an extended multiple for a company very late in the cycle. I agree with the story. I'd absolutely be a buyer at 100, 108, 150 here. If your law If your cost base is good, hey, ride her till she bucks you, right? I'm going to I would pass on this one. I think it's just too pricey. Since the April depth, the stock's already What's it gone? 63% the last three, three and a half months.
I think we're late to the party on Cloudflare. This is probably one I would pass on. >> You're definitely def- definitely playing a trying to play that trend there. And if the trend doesn't come out its way, then then yeah, look out below on that one. So, okay. So, we're going to scrap that one. I've still got four left four Bring us home with uh with one more here. >> ServiceNow, ticker NOW. Now, one thing I like about this right off the bat, and that is the CEO eats his own cook.
He took He's taking 97% of his pay is tied directly to the stock performance. So, right out of the gate, you got a guy whose interests are aligned with yours. You know, you don't have some CEO making 25 million a year. He's He's going to make money if you make money. That's good. Two, most software like we saw the sell-off in software late 25, first half of 26. And And you know how it is with institutions. They just dump it all.
Software's scary, don't touch it. Sell everything. Sell the software ETF. And this one came down with it. It was What was this? It was 240 a share January of last year. It fell to 80. And I think it was mistakenly thrown out with the bathwater. Because what most software products do is perform a single task. What ServiceNow does, they're essentially like like the plumbing that handles all these company processes. So, they're They're like the system of of of of of record keeping.
They're like a traffic coordinator for work between humans and systems. So, the moat here, unlike others, isn't the software's features. It's It's It's how entrenched they are with these big Fortune 500 companies. Like, once you've got 400 workflows wired into this software, right? When a fire comes in, a paperwork to get a paycheck here, clients go here. Like it's all done automatically. When you've got hundreds of workflows, when you have 20 years of your institutional process in your platform, all running on ServiceNow, ripping it out is not easy.
It it it'd be like replacing the the the the plumbing on a skyscraper while the people live in it. ServiceNow processes 95 billion workflows a year. And again, for some of the biggest companies in the world. So, the fear was AI agents of the future, people aren't going to use software. I agree AI agents maybe the but they need a place to They need someone to govern them. And the numbers we're seeing at ServiceNow support that.
Just last quarter for Q2, subscription revenue up 23%. Their operating margins are 29 and a half percent. I think guidance like 26, so they're even beating their own guidance. Their agentic deployments are up ninefold in nine months. The renewal rate, 98%. And the company just again raised their guidance for 2026. And all this happening to a stock that's 50% off its last year's high. So, ServiceNow to me, no-brainer buy here, 100 110 a share, absolutely no-brainer. >> I think you're right on this one.
Yeah, ServiceNow another big player in that AI shift. I love the the agentic deployments because not only are they are they getting the money from those deployments, but I think investors are missing a critical piece here. That that piece of the the the company solves a different problem with that AI agentic problem than than Cloudflare. After the gateway routes that AI request, ServiceNow's agent orchestrator is it's going to be the kind of that control tower that decide which agents do the work.
Yeah, it's going to break down those AI jobs into the most effective, most efficient agents, track their performance, measure whether they actually save time and money. That is going to be gold for a lot of these companies that are running those agents. That orchestration is going to reduce duplicate work, going to prevent runaway AI usage. I think you got a winner here. I love the valuation and I love that it's been sold off with the rest of the uh the software stocks because I think this is the winner.
I think I think we do. Um so we've got our five. We've got ServiceNow. We've got GDX, that's the uh gold miners ETF, Alibaba Group, BABA, CrowdStrike, CRWD, and FCX, that Freeport-McMoRan. Great five stocks uh for the for your list. Let us know in the comments which picks you would pick up uh which ones you would add to the list. I want to thank Ross for helping us pick those best stocks in our portfolio. Check out his channel for more stocks to buy.
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