🔴LIVE DAY TRADING | GOLD & NQ | VOLUME + ORDERFLOW | EPISODE 118 | GC / XAU USD - NQ / NASDAQ transcript

Okay, what's happening my fans? Welcome back [snorts] to episode 118 of the live day trading channel. Hope you guys are doing well. My name is Lorado. >> Hey, what's happening my major breakout. We're dealing with a major breakout from yesterday. Finally, the day has come. We have been in that compressor for months and we have finally seen some momentum. All right, I'm really looking forward to this. It's too bad that I couldn't stream yesterday because wow, look at the price action of yesterday.

It was gorgeous. Absolutely gorgeous. But anyways, let's talk about today. Hope everyone is doing well here. Um man, we have so many things to discuss, right? Look at gold. That's uh a pretty simple explanation from there. We don't have to go really deep really deep into that. I think it's pretty obvious what that's happened. But anyways, we'll make it we'll make it worthwhile. Good to see you, Nate, my friend. How are you doing, my man?

Hayden, good to see you. Yes, sir. Monkey Monkey, sorry. Monkey Heidi, [snorts] Andreas, my friend. Paul Maria, hey, how you doing, my friend? Maria, good to see you. A long time ago. Yes, Zaza my friend, how you doing? Abdul D cipher. Yeah, Bunker, my friend, how you doing? Dango, good to see you. Dad talk my friend, good to see you. Below, my friend. Yeah, a lot of familiar faces right there. Right. Okay, beautiful.

Let's get the party started, my friends. Let's make it a good stream. Let's make it a good week. We have four days of streaming. We have today, tomorrow, Thursday, and Friday. So, we have a lot of uh a lot of streams coming along coming ahead of us here. All right, let's make it worthwhile. Let's make it work. [music] Good morning or good evening. [music] >> [music] >> You are unstoppable. Unstoppable. [music] Let's move.

Talk about it. [music] Heat. [music] Heat. [music] I [music] I'm [music] candle night and Let's [music] [music] go. [music] Let's move. Talk about it. Heat. Heat. [music] I'm [music] Okay, my friends, welcome back. >> [music] >> We're waiting for the 9:00 a.m. the 9:00 p.m. volume to come in. Okay, we are waiting for a potential uh breakout. A little breakout. A little actually a little bounce to be honest. A little little pullback, a little sculp long.

Maybe a little a little one. Just a little one. Okay. Nothing too big. Nothing too crazy. I'll tell you why in a second here, but it's just a little one. Just a little one. All right. We're clearly bearish still, so [snorts] don't get too excited yet. But uh yeah, we have been dropping. We have been dropping hard. We talked about it, you know, a couple days ago also on a Friday. We said it doesn't matter what direction, we will be breaking out, but we will be breaking out by the end of the month.

Like we will be seeing a breakout. We are compressing for two months and we have to get out of that compression. We have to get out of that break, right? we have to leave it and we did and we did it hard and the moment it goes it goes and this is what we said so many times before when gold goes it goes okay it is unstoppable pretty much after the breakout just continuously start dropping the whole day and after that pretty much while you saw gold dropping the order flow as well you can actually see it right here this is the order flow and these are all the you know the sellers and the buyers that stepped in in this downtrend right there in that breakout you could see that there is so many green at the top every time here and every time that happened.

You see that green here? Is it that green? Let me make that green. You can see that all those buyers that stepped in were trying to predict the bottom trapped in a position right there. Trapped in that position right there. A lot of buyers here. The top of that candle that the red candle red hourly candle trapped in that position. Then it started to come here. A lot of buying here. You see that? A lot of buying. Boom.

Price broke down again, retested it. Who's trapped? All those freaking buyers trapped in their position right there. You see that? It's constantly trying to predict the bottom and it's constantly gold going lower and buyers getting stuck in their trade. Sellers take control again. Boom. Right. And this what we can see right now. Sellers are still in control. The sellers are still in control. Okay, that's it. That's just the conclusion.

Um we are though there is a there is a kind of a key difference now that we are facing but sellers are simply still in control. I was hoping for a breakout maybe could see some sort of pullback but uh you can actually see the order for now very clearly that the buyers are just uh not winning the battle here. Okay we do have a weekly demand sitting right below this is like the monzone that I have marked out right there.

I think important to mark out that demand zone there is like a huge weekly support there. Okay, the fact that gold dropped in one day roughly speaking around 1,500 pips is not surprising when you have been compressing for so long. So if you think it's it's weird, not really weird because that's what happens usually after such a long compression, right? Gold tends to break out really extremely to one direction. So that's what you can see here.

Uh but it immediately drives back to that higher time in the month, but we have not absolutely reached it yet. So there is still some work to do. Okay, right there. In case you want to pull back, there is still a little bit more momentum, more room. Previous day low is not taken out. We have set a low here. We have set a low here. It could be that we sweep that also. Right. So, there there's still a lot of um there's still definitely a lot of u you know confivation potential as well here.

So, we cannot neglect this in any way, shape, or form. Now, look at the yields, my friend. Look at the freaking yields. Look at the 10-year yield at this current moment in time here. We are breaking the 2008 2007 highs, the recession highs, the economic crisis highs on the yields right now. We're breaking it and it doesn't look like we are willing to take a breather at the moment on the yields. It doesn't look like we're ready to stop and give up yet.

So, the yields are extremely strong right now at the moment. Nothing to say or do about that here. The dollar is not as strong. I mean, the dollar is kind of holding at that supply zone. It doesn't really want to go anywhere, but it's not weak either. Okay, it is definitely not weak on the other hand either. It's just hovering around. It's ranging. This is of course always important to understand for gold as well, but it's not really weak.

We cannot neglect and say, "Oh, well, the dollar is in supply, so yeah, it's going to No, it's not really weak. Look at that. We're holding that trend steadily. uh and we're getting respected every time we tap into that initial trend right there. So, gold is weaker and I don't see any buys yet at this current moment in time. The only thing that I can say here on gold is that we are uh yeah a little bit in an area of consolidation at the moment on the bottom right there.

We do seeing sellers stepping in but this candle is going to close in like 11 minutes and it doesn't seem like there's any absorption right now at the moment. Honestly, if that would be the case, then those sellers would be trapped right now in their position right there. That's the absolute minimum, the absolute minimum we want to see for buys or a quick sculp to the upside or whatever. If we want to go long, we need to in essence break back above um yeah, that that area of sell is right there at the bottom.

Okay, we need to kind of close above them and see what happens from there. Yes. So, at the moment in this case, I would say we're looking really really bullish uh at the moment. However, there could be a moment where we would make a little bit of a pullback. I mean, it's not nothing wrong with a little pullback because it's actually very healthy to be honest to tap back into some of those areas, right, with high volume, which are an area where sellers entered and stuff, price pulling back and then selling off again.

So, it's not that um we are bullish at all, but we could experience some sort of pullback very soon. uh short-term pullback. I would not say that that is completely like excluded from what we can see today depending on what the volume will do when it kicks in here. Okay. Now, sometimes we have to ask ourselves the question when when do we can really look belongs again with more confidence. Well, look at this overall daily candle.

And I think this is actually super interesting. The fact that we have a daily candle like that and then where is all the volume traded? Is it at the top of at the bottom of that candle? Let me know. Where is all the volume of that daily candle of yesterday on gold trade it? At the top or at the bottom? Let me know cuz that's actually very interesting to watch. If you see that and it's predominantly at the bottom right here indeed, right?

Then it's very simple to say that okay if you close a daily candle back above that volume then it could be that buyers are taking uh back or coming kind of back in control a little bit as well here and that means that we have to then uh potentially turn it into support and we could see something like this happen that is possible right if you close above that but it's not for today's session okay because we're nowhere near that but that would be a situation where we will be potentially turning back bullish okay that's kind of the scenario we touch right there.

If that's the case, then we'll make a pullback scenario [music] and then uh yeah, price could potentially then whatever do something like that or it could simply react here, right? And push back higher, anything like that. Hope that makes sense. But that is something that we would say, okay, that is a pullback scenario. This on the daily time frame, by the way, so this is not uh something that we can do right away. And this is actually somewhere around the previous daily point of control.

So somewhere around this area if you would break above that okay right there then I would say okay now we can talk now we can talk now there's just a bigger chance that we might be coming back for you know the villar high uh again at the 4200 and things like that [music] can that could be a scenario where it's safer to go long actually um and hold on to them a little bit more. All right. Especially when we look at this one right there.

That is actually this level the 41 56 the 4160. This roughly speaking that that that high right there. This is kind of the level that we are watching for that actual kind of reversal play again where you could say okay buyers are back. Buyers are potentially back and we might have to make a pullback to test the highs or to come back towards the valary high of yesterday or whatever the case may be. Okay, for now that is definitely not the case and uh yeah, what can I say?

We are dealing with a huge swing, a huge expansion and price is just weak at the moment. Okay, so is there a chance of just shorting it? Yes, I I think so. There is a chance. Let's see where this hourly candle closes. And if this hourly candle closes really weak and it closed below that, I mean, it just shows that there is still not enough buyers in the market. sellers are still in control and I think that yeah we can pretty much look for lower targets um roughly speaking to the 4,90 area something I was looking at 490 hopefully we don't close too low that will be unfortunate but that hourly closure I think is going to be important right now at the moment so hopefully we don't close too low cuz that will be uh disastrous cuz then we'll get there already right but um silver is something else what I wanted to talk out.

Silver has been dropping really hard. Okay, silver dropped around 6% yesterday, I think, if I'm not mistaken. 6% something like that. Yeah, 6%. Okay, we will have major support there, but it's still much lower. Okay, that's also another thing that I wanted to show you. The support on silver is right here. It's at the 59. Okay, that is that is far away. It's like at 60.5 here. That is pretty pretty far. That's another 2.5% to go.

Okay. Uh for us to say, oh that is when silver will finally find its support. Now there is some nuance, some correlation between gold and silver, right? So it's important to mention as well that we want to see silver being in potential support as well. Um that is sitting roughly right there around this area. Okay, around the 59. So silver has still some runway as well here. Okay. So pay pay attention to that when trading gold at this current moment.

I would like to see silver and gold to be alike to find support on both ends. Like if you are in the month higher time frame I want silver to be there too right and not just gold. I think that uh is something I would be looking at but kind of what I would be watching for uh for silver to me to say okay now we are actually finding some support. Seriously, I'm across the the sector, right? The silver the metal sector as well as u not just gold by default.

All right, that is important. Silver has a lot more room to go as well. Yeah, there is still a lot of momentum. Um and it's hard to say that we are bullish. What can I say? It's tough. It's tough to say that we're bullish here. Okay. And there's just too much selling happening right there. And it's tough to go long. Like that's for sure. It would be nice to go for a quick scal, but that only would work if you would close above above the uh above the uh the very high of today.

That's it. Okay. So, that is it. That is it my friends. Uh yeah, let's see if we will be going for the lows if price would continuously go lower. I would be very um surprised if we not take out those lows to be honest. Um we did open an open we had an opening gap this morning again similar to on a Monday right a lot of people were going long here because they were looking for that gap to be filled uh I noticed also in the yeah I think it's normal if you see a gap right you can blame them for it and you see [music] price you know potentially pulling back to it yeah then you know a lot of people are going for the gap fill but um yeah in this case it did just continue to drop drop drop drop and break out at the very Yeah, really strongly.

Yep. Okay. So, yeah, in terms of the actual trade trade, kind of have to watch for that 900 p.m. volume to come in in 4 minutes. If we do manage to break out, by the way, right out of the very area here, there is a chance that we will indeed revisit um some of those highs and potentially make a little runway, a little pullback. Um [music] but yeah the the overall core is still bearish [snorts] definitely and I think it is important to [music] uh to mention right there.

Okay. Yeah. Keep in mind when a gap opens up right there is what we call a gap fills and then it you know makes the real move. It does happen a lot apparently that these capills they're very high accuracy like they have a high success rate you know but um yeah I think it's important also to look at the value area of the day and if you break out of the value area of that day and you never reclaim it you never come back into it then don't we don't have what we call the range manipulation play right we're just breaking out and that's kind of the thing right there we should have reclaimed it very low that would have been maybe a long entry from there.

But we we never really did that. We never reclaimed very low. We never really uh went anywhere. We just kept dropping. So yeah. Yes. Okay. Yeah. [snorts] Most importantly, where is the most volume traded now on the 4 hour? It is actually sitting right here. Look at that. 60,000 contracts right there. That's a lot of volume. And that's what I'm saying, right? That's why the New York session is so important because actually the New York session can really help us a lot with Yeah. understanding what our bias is um and what we should look for because if the most volume is traded at the bottom and you tapped into that.

Yeah. I don't want to be long, let's say, when we are right here, for example, right entering that zone right there. I don't want to be long when we're entering this area. um right there because you know we would run straight into resistance that's going to be very dangerous. So I'm very careful with that uh purposefully waiting and that's why I would not be looking for longs now. Maybe towards that point, maybe we could trade towards that if you would break above the value area of today.

Like maybe we could find like a a scalp towards that level. But it's very very small, right? It's very small. No, it's not that small to be honest looking at it right now. But uh yeah, it is relatively bearish still. Yeah. Let's see, my friends. Let's see what the volume does here. 1 minute to go. One minute left. One minute left. Yes. Lorenzo, what about that weekly lemon zone? Yeah. Well, that weekly monzone is right there.

Okay. We are actually operating [music] in a weekly lemon zone. So, we this is this is where you should be able to find support later. Stronger support. We just haven't seen that that reversal, right? We haven't seen us breaking uh above critical levels yet like the value area of uh of today or so I could better say the polic control of the previous day which is the red line. If it would break above that then I would be more more keen to look for uh you know that that actual potential reversal gap.

Yeah, we're not we're not swing traders, right? We're not we're not holding on to trade. We're not going long and holding it for a couple days or a couple weeks uh or putting our stop loss below that that weekly demand zone, right? That would be for us a you know if you would enter here it would be a,000 or 1100 pip stop loss. Yeah, that's not what we can do right now as as day traders, right? We have to kind of wait [laughter] for the confirmations for longs and the port of control of the previous day is a good good example of that.

If you can close above that, preferably a daily candle by the way. Then I think you have a lot more opportunities to go long again right from there with like more conviction knowing that you bounce from higher time frame um higher time frame the month pretty much. Okay. Yeah. Yes. All right. Volume. Any volume, my friends? Any volume. How did we close this hourly candle? Um, we closed this hourly candle. One second. I have to restart this hourly candle.

Yeah. Yeah. That's the thing about today, right? Because you have we have been dropping so much in one day that the whole move happened in one day pretty much. So the whole move that we kind of were waiting for happened in one trading day and uh yeah now you are pretty much at next support already roughly speaking but uh no we still close bearish. We still pretty much close bearish. A lot of absorption though. Wow. at the moment.

Okay. Yeah. Like I said, this what I meant with a quick sculp. If we can't do that and we don't break the loss and we see constant support here, you do break out at the very area. This level particularly the 27 then we have to watch that. Yeah, roughly speaking there. So it is this decent. It's a very small trade by the way if that will be the case. But uh yeah, what do you have to do? You have to break above the break above the VWAP.

Now we're kind of doing this right now. we have to uh also close above the value area of today. Now we have to we're kind of doing this now. So, it's kind of the same thing. And if you can't do that, there is nothing to do there because the hourly itself is um is relatively bearish of yesterday at least. And the hourly candle of the previous uh previous hourly, sorry, previous hourly candle closed relatively flat. Quick sculp though.

That would be that would be maybe nice. Maybe maybe there is a possibility though. Like I said before, what does it mean when in order flows chart we have more buyers but price comes down? That is that is very bearish. Look at that. A lot of green delta but the candle closes red. [music] That means there's a lot of absorption of buyers. A lot of people that pressed market buy um got absorbed by what we call passive participations.

So passive sellers and it means that there is a huge seller in the market here that was absorbing or taking on all those market buys overwhelming them and still closing the candles red. And that turns that into [music] uh an area where those buyers are stuck. And if they if these buyers are getting back to to their entries, they usually tend to exit the positions and then you can see that there are more sellers entering the market and then you know the story repeats itself.

So it's very it's actually very interesting and a trend to spot that because that means pretty much that um buyers are not in control. We're starting to see more sellers entering now the bottom though, right? This is what we're kind of seeing now in the Asian session. There is just not enough momentum it seems like to push price higher. >> But if we do, we have to close above the uh 4158 on futures or about the value area high which is the 4126 [singing] >> in 9 minutes or long something around 9 minutes. the 50-minute candle, right? >> What will be the next target?

It will be just a sculp, I guess, because you know, well, a sculp. I mean, it's pretty pretty big. I mean, it's uh the next low volume note right there, which is right there. So, let's see where we close this candle. That will be the next zone already. So it's not it's going to be it's not going to be on like super big long. The bigger trades would happen above the above the point of control above the red line. That's where we potentially will find the bigger uh the bigger retracement.

Right? But if you can't do that, if this 15-minute candle will not do anything and it just will not even break out because this is when the volume comes in or kicks in. If that cannot break out then I remain bearish for the session. [music] Personally I remain bearish Jay. Yo my brother's in your Discord. Hey man. What's up >> [music] >> Sir, last night I remember you live in Tik Tok in a New York session now. Man, I need to start Tik Tok.

I say it every time. I say it every time. People were trying to hack my Tik Tok >> couple days ago, by the way. >> Wonder why. >> Nah, it doesn't want to doesn't want to do anything. Does it want to close above it? That's why it's so important if I would go long, I would have waited for the the very high of today to be to be t to be closing above. So, I would wait for the for the 26 to be closed above and then I would potentially go for a quick long to the 39 like that.

You know that the volume is coming in now at 9. You can take advantage of that. You know, okay, that's when the volume kicks in. So it it rather shows us the break closure, the breakout or the closure. >> So let's see. Look at these big orders below as well. Some big orders sitting there below. Bro say sellers take control I'm planning to buy. Yeah, if you close above that, then I do see a quick buy sculpt for sure. Even though the the the trend is bearish clearly, like there's no doubt sellers are still in control, but it doesn't mean that buyers could step in.

We could pull back a bit, but we have to close above that um above the very high. four minutes I think. Well, we'll know. We'll know if you don't do that. If you kind of close above that then um that will be an issue. That would be an issue right there if that would be the case, right? What is that level? That's actually right there. You can actually see this. It's actually this level, the 5 minute. If that gets gets broken and we close above that, then you have exactly what we talked about, a break above the very high.

If you can't seem to break that, then I think shorting is still what I would like to do and take out the lows and then maybe go lower. Also, keep just a very close eye on silver as well. Silver I think will be very similar today. We still have a lot more room for silver as well here. Silver has a little bit more room than gold has. So I think it's important both silver for reversals, right? Both silver and gold are aligned. >> So yeah, it all depends around this moment here.

This was just being bearish, but now we are at a stage where we might see a little bit bit of a pullback above the very area to this point and then maybe again sell off like that. But if it can't seem to close above that and we flip it and we close below it, I will also look for shorts as well. So it's a very it's a very mixed uh idea. I think we have a lot of freedom to kind of trade in both directions at least around this moment.

Okay, there we go. This matters. This really matters. So if you close above that 1 minute left. Bruce Wayne's buy trade on gold hit the stop loss and after that the market crashed. That's why you have stop losses, right? That is that is why you have stop losses. So you prevent that of happening, right? You get into a long which is okay. to get stopped out which is fine in the right context right and the whole point is that you protect yourself after that [laughter] that's the whole point imagine getting getting stuck in that in that in a trade where you are buying and the market just keeps dropping the whole day only one time is what you Okay.

Well, wow. We're getting there though, my friends. We are getting there. 7 seconds. And we actually do close above that. Okay. Is it time for a quick sculp? That's the question here. Is it time for a quick sculp? I will give it a try. I'll give it a try. I'm willing to do that. I'm in. I will give it a try and I will try to see if you could trade it to the uh 40s. Back to the 40s. So a little bit riskier guys today but I do see potential scenario where the 15 minute in the first candle right now closed above that structure which what I which which I like personally I do like that I do think that there is decent support here and we have been consolidating and breaking.

So I do want to see this but we're going to manage this very very tightly. This is not this not going to be a joke cuz this is a uh counter trend. sculp. Okay, back to that low five load. Waited a little bit for the retest of the VWAP. So, we didn't enter market right away. Just wanted to see a little reaction first. So, let's see if it's capable. of doing that to that point. It's the first 15-minute closure where buyers are actually finally taking a little ground back.

Finally. It's been a long time. or not. Or maybe not. Maybe not at all. Wow. We were looking for shorts, but man, that's why I'm saying these these quick scops can be can be very very deadly sometimes. But let's see what happens. Is this real money? Yeah, of course. Always real money. It's pretty nasty to be honest because the price action is then very very unstable also for shorts. pretty much back at our entry again.

That looked nasty, my friends. Wow, that looked very nasty. That looked very nasty. back at our entry. >> But yeah, with that huge flip, you do want to stay in cuz I would have entered again probably. So yeah, I don't want to get out. 15 minute now looks much much cleaner if this pushes through of course because you have a huge bottom wick. Yeah, that's all we're looking for. back towards that resistance, that low volume note, and then going potentially further lows again, targeting the the next leg down.

But yeah, the absorption is a real thing now, especially that we tapped into this and we flipped. Tell us a try. They never make it as They never make it easy. They never make it easy. Okay. Yeah. Oh my god. break even now. Yeah, I mean you can you can manage to trade very aggressively. I would not I would not I would not say anything about that. I think it's fair especially in this condition here. Yeah, you see that green bubble?

They're making it They're not going to make it easy today. They're not going to make it easy for long, that's for sure. Okay, now you do. Can you go up now? You came up, you came back down. Okay. Yeah. Uh we're going to put it up by giving here, my friend. This this this should be going this has been going up and down multiple times. We want to see the follow through right now. So that's it. I'm not going to risk those those freaking counter trends right here, especially when we saw the juice flip.

So, we we either break and follow through and we shoot to the low not and we take profits by the way if we get a bit higher. But stop loss is on break even. Risk free here. We're not going to risk this especially on the locks. Okay, almost halfway there. One more squeeze. All right, I'm even taking out some profits here. Literally, this is sculping for me today, guys. That's it. because we're at the bottom of an expansion.

This is culping for me. Uh so I've taken out some profits right here. This is not a typical setup session I would say where we would be uh very very um this is a much more aggressive counter trend sculping session with a good confirmation above the value area high after finding support [music] right here. Okay. So, it makes sense, but it needs aggressive. It needs aggressive management. That's all I can say. It needs aggressive management.

We're not going to We're not going to shoot for the stars with a long right now. Let me get some uh coffee, my friends. One sec. Nataly That's when you know where you can walk away after you've taken profits and your risk is free. you can chill and see what happens, right? But anyways, this is a just a quick sculp here. We're not gonna shoot for the stars today with this long. I don't see that uh personally happening.

I think there is still a lot of selling here. I think the market is still relatively bearish as well here. I just think that there was indeed a chance where we could come and revisit that resistance or that low volume note. Okay, from yesterday right there, which is actually in essence uh this area on the higher time frame, the 4hour, which is this uh zone where buyers stepped in quite aggressively right there. Okay, that is kind of the the the target that I would say is reasonable.

So, it's nothing big. Okay, stop loss already at entry. So, we cannot lose any money anymore. And now the question is, will this follow through? Right? Will this go and get there? We have the closure in around 1 minute and 50 seconds will be nice. I think we took profit at that level where we should have taken profits because you can talk Do you usually throw your stop loss? I do only in trending environments, trending markets.

So when the market is clearly trending downwards like it was yesterday, different story, but we have been compressing, we have been in a ranging market forever. Okay. So yeah, then it's usually from either take profit TP1 and um pull TP pretty much, right? Yeah. And in this case, the target is relatively clear, which is this low volume note. I'll write it down. Low volume notes. All right, we have the closure now. Relatively strong closure, I must say, in the 15 because you have the bottom wick, you have buyers.

We closed above those buyers. So, it's pretty pretty it's a pretty good closure. stop loss at entry at [music] on break even. Right? Just clarification. It's super important in this condition to do that now. Like really this is like a condition now after this huge move down where we are ranging. you take you take what you can get type of condition. Take what you can get, but wait for the right confirmations though. Don't don't just randomly enter.

Here, this is Naim. Thank you for for the indicator. Just want to know which is the best time frame we can use it for. Uh the five and 15 is great for um the ranges the ranges I would say the when you are in an aggressive trend like yesterday it's the five minute okay one directional of course so only when you are overvalued it's interesting and then we have the higher time frame which is much more for the macro perspective the daily and the 4our four.

Yeah. Yeah. Know clearly we're finding resistance on where where we took profits. We can't seem to break that I guess. I don't know. There is something there. holding us back. Yeah, in this case it's take whatever you can get and even here taking profits is important. You think oh that is nothing. Well, in this condition right now, it made sense. >> Oh. Yeah, it's cool and all, but now you want to break it, right? You want to flip it.

You want to break through. >> If you guys really support this channel, um, then I highly would appreciate if you could smash that like button. That would help the channel grow. I do appreciate you guys for uh all the support as well and all the amazing messages I receive in the DMs. I really do appreciate that, man. Uh thank you for that. Keeps me very motivated for sure to uh to do it. I would be disciplined anyways, but it motivates me to see those messages for sure.

Yeah, if you can't seem to follow through, then it is what it is, right? Like can make it up. We're not going to now I'm not going to keep my stop loss below. It was the m the maker or breaker. In this case, we had a maker. We took profits and we're waiting for the breaker. We're still waiting for the breaker. >> I think the 40 would be an amazing target personally or the 39 because that low volume note is something I've been watching and I think it's a reasonable reasonable target for a counter trend now.

Long setup back towards that zone. I think it's reasonable especially when you reach that support multiple times and you can't seem to break it right that's what we're nice is doing right we respect the very low of yesterday multiple times the previous daily very low and what happened we we broke above the very area high of today so it's actually some it looks like a range manipulation setup the difference is we actually turned the previous day very low into that support and we saw that absorption there at the bottom and we broke above the very highs.

That's why it seems reasonable to say that we could get there, but you never know. It's very choppy. It's very choppy and we're not going to risk more than we should. And every time when we reach to our when we get back to our takeprofit [music] point, we get rejected. every time. Let's look at a five minute. Aha. There. It could still flip. It actually could still flip here right now. Do you have New York session trading?

Uh, not in YouTube. Not on YouTube. If it would be, I would do it in a group or with group if you plan a session like that. No, we don't want to we don't want to resume our momentum. I think our stop loss is right there. Right below. So, it's it's below it's below like a nice zone. our stop loss. I mean our our entry. So, wow. It's right below it. No, it doesn't doesn't want to do it. Okay. I don't know how many times this come has flipped, but it has been at least six, seven times. if not more.

Up, down, up, down, up, down, up, down, up, down. So, we took profits at the right moment. You guys agree? I think we had to No hesitation here. Imagine if it if it would flip again. I mean, we're still in that zone. That's it. Take what you can get. All right. Done. That's it. We took it. We took profit. And that's it. Very simple. Not a huge trade. Actually, not a huge trade at all. $300, which is not a huge trade for me, [music] but uh okay.

I mean, yeah, that that was in essence the the the logic like I mean, the close above it. We had this uh wick, the the stop loss went below that low. We targeted the low five note. Could it still get there? It could, but we're not going to risk it in this market after TP1. The rule is stop loss goes to your entry and you want to see the follow through. And if you don't see it, you accept. Yeah. So, yeah, we took profits at 4131 as you can see 4131.

And uh yeah, I mean up to you to decide what you want to do. You want to hold it and keep your stops there, target the highs. I personally have a rule. If I take profits, I put my stop loss to my entry. And I have a reason why in this case I want to take profits relatively sooner than later. And that was because of the price action right there. So profit is profit. Scope is is a scope. And we're not setting really big expectations for the session today.

We're just not because uh the market has been coming down so much yesterday that it is uh what we call uh taking a little breeder. Taking a little breeder, right? And that is just a situation we're dealing with. You go from strong impulse to a flat area of consolidation waiting for the next move. And uh we also have some news. We have the interest rate decision from the Bank of Australia as well which is of course a bit correlated to gold and Australian dollar and gold also have some connections uh as well here.

So there there is definitely a reason why but yeah uh let's see what happens. Maybe it will shoot through it right now but the rule is very clear and I'm not going to change that rule. I would never do that. [snorts] Um, after TP1, it is stop loss to entry. And if you get here, you get hit and that's it. But let's see what happens. Let's see if we get to the 39s. It had to just go up and down a seven to like 10 times in a row.

Up, down, up, down, up, down, up, down, up, down. And now we're going. >> But again, like we're really struggling there. So that TP1 was a was a was a perfect level. No, I think it was good. It was good. >> Yeah. >> Why did we entered buys in the first place? We entered buys because of the following reason. We can go over it one more time so you guys also can kind of understand it. Um, from that perspective, uh, you have like the daily value area.

So, we have the point of control. We mark out the the fixed volume profile from the left to the right right here left to the right and we are in the value area of yesterday. So we have the value area high and the value area low. Okay. Sometimes what we prefer is that you break the very low and you could come back into that. That's called a range manipulation. We didn't do that. Okay. We did not do that. But we did find really strong support here at the bottom multiple times in a row where we could see that sellers were trying to sell into but they couldn't really get anywhere.

You can see that right there. Sellers, sellers, sellers all stuck at the bottom right there. Okay. So then the logical move is you wait for price to break above the value area of today or close above the VWAP and the port of control. Then you go long on the retest on the next candle and you target the next leg up. So the quick the next area of resistance which would be the the low volume note. Uh however when you do that you're trading counter trend after your TP1 stop loss needs to go [music] your entry.

So you take profits 50%. And then after your 50% take profit, which is right here, you need to put your stop loss at your entry. And sometimes you drop and it doesn't go. And the other dimes it goes and it continues to go higher, which is fine. But the rules are the rules. Okay? The rules are the rules. If it was shorts, we would have been a bit more aggressive with holding on and not necessarily looking for a quick TP1, for example, would have probably been a bit more um, you know, conservative, a little bit more patient with taking profits.

Maybe putting our stops to entry, but not taking profits right away because of that bearish nature of gold right now at the moment. >> [music] >> Okay, that is the difference between the counter trend sculpt back up and the continuation down pretty [music] much. Yeah. Okay. What is then the target if you are still in? I would say the low volume note. But it's up to you to decide that if you are if you did what I did for me it's fine.

But um the low VI note of course that will be a next uh area of uh of resistance at the 40 Y because you can already kind of see that rejection by the way right here. Uh right here uh right here you see that we have a huge area that is a low not in real time right there. That is uh the next that's the the most logical like target right there and it has then alignment with the 4hour and the 1 hour but the 4 hour let's see where is it the 4hour zone right there okay uh sorry the 4hour zone yeah in between it's somewhere in between here but it makes sense that it's around around this area of course yep it's pretty much what you see there if that makes sense.

Okay. So, yeah, I think that's the best we could make out of it. To be honest, I don't see anything that could be uh Yeah, I think that's the best that we could have made out of this uh session right now at the moment. [snorts] Yeah. So that's why no shorts in this case and only longs in this session now at least because we broke above the very area and you can again see how important the 900 p.m. volume is when the 9 p.m. volume came in that's when the move actually happened right so waiting for that 900 p.m. or that RD closure was actually very important as well.

Why don't you try to swing? Um because I think that silver and I'm looking at silver too right now at the moment. I think that silver has a little bit more room to go. Okay. So, I'm actually waiting for silver to hit that demand zone right there on the weekly time frame. That weekly demand on silver is kind of what I'm waiting for. What I'm looking at right here. If you could reach that weekly demand, that would be amazing.

And then I think that we will have what we want right there. It's not that much lower. I mean, it's still it's it's definitely, you know, 2% lower. I'm still waiting as well here as well, like the dollar. Look at the dollar. Look at the dollar. Where's the dollar at? The dollar is uh yeah, everything except weak in my opinion. Okay, the dollar is in supply on the higher time frame on the daily. You can actually see that we're into that supply zone.

So, the dollar is slowing down. The dollar is slowing down, but I don't think we're looking weak at all yet on the dollar. The dollar is just respecting every form of [snorts] u of support every time right there. The dollar doesn't want to drop. That's another reason oil is um yeah holding that support too. The yields are are actually really strong. Look at the 10ear yield. Look at that, man. Unbelievable. Yeah. So, yeah.

I don't think we're fully there yet. That's what I'm thinking. All right. Yeah, that's what I'm thinking here. All right. So, what do you do during the day or when the market's pushing up the very area will move up higher too? Yeah. Can we reach the the low note then? That's a question. What will happen there? That's what I'm actually very curious about. That's why I'm waiting. What happens at the low bar note? What actually happens there?

Right? That's kind of the thing that I'm I'm looking at from okay what is happening if you would reach that level because that's when we will be probably visiting that resistance that major resistance right there. Um yeah we're already we're already in a major era of buyers right here. So I understand why gold is struggling already. I really do. I really do. I really do. I really do. I really understand why gold has already some issues around this level.

Yeah. I hope you guys understand why taking profits is so important in this case. Let me know in the chat if you guys understand that. Type in a yes why you believe that for longs in this case not shorts but for longs taking profit here was was really important for us. We're fighting a larger yeah I would say trend right now and we are in the Asian session so we do want to trade in this case and we did broke above the very high today so we we do wanted to go long but with >> caution I just want to dance.

Definitely want to do that. Any other trade? I don't see any other trades for now to be honest. I see this as the long and then maybe at the low note if we get rejected there, right? We we might be looking for the the other scenario. I just want to just dance. Just I just want to dance. Do you trade silver? No, I do not trade silver. No, I do not trade silver. I just look at I do look at silver. I mean I look at silver just to make sure that we are aware of what's happening on silver just making sure that we are aware on silver like are we at major levels for example is silver already there right if not okay where or how much time does silver has to go where is the major support for silver I think it's around the 60s the 59 the 60s that is I think where silver will find major support as well so If silver is not there yet, then what could happen?

And this I've seen this so many times. But guys, when we reach that major resistance, we we know we have major support sitting right here. Also for gold, this is super important. We have major support sitting below, but then the market starts to stop before it reaches that area. And then how many times do we see this happening? Okay, longer range range range. We pretend to go up, we can go down, and then we make the move.

Then we make the pullback, right? How many times have I have you seen this? Many times over where you consolidate before you tap into that major support which is actually super obvious support and then it doesn't tap into it and you think, "Oh, we already found support higher." Nope. It goes up, it goes down, taps into that support and then it pushes above that initial balance, initial range that we see there and then price continues to go higher.

I've seen it so many times happening here and I think that gold might be in for a little bit of a similar um you know move here. You stop, you range, you create the highs, you reject and then boom, you make the move down and then you tap into the real support, the real move and then you go from right there and then you you reclaim it and then it starts to go. said it so many times over now that that's kind of the the anticipation that I'm looking for.

But, you know, I'm not here to predict that perfectly. We just look at any trade confirmation of confirmation of confirmation and that that's pretty much that's pretty much it, right? That's pretty much the wave. Um so in this case for gold it's important for me personally to look at silver too and to see what silver is doing because that gives us kind of the understanding there of uh you know where gold is at in rate respect to silver right that's kind of the idea that we understand gold we understand silver in this case especially in these in these moments when the market is really trending aggressively and we're reaching new areas of support.

It's good to know where silver is at as well. Yes. I want to show you. Yeah. What were your best days of the month and your worst days of the month? A good question. Guess what my worst day of the month was. Guess. Let me know in the chat, my friends. What was my worst day of the month? What was my worst day of the month? Monday or Friday? [laughter] Which one was it? Which one was it? It was Mondays. Look at that. Horrible.

Mondays were horrible. Yeah, the open the the weekly open. Horrible. Okay. Horrible. Horrible. Yep. Mondays were um were the worst days of the month this this this month in September. Yeah. All the Wednesdays were green. The Fridays mwah also not great. So it was the Tuesday, the Wednesday, and the Thursday this month. Doesn't happen every month. >> Okay. Doesn't happen every month. Doesn't happen every month. >> Yeah.

Doesn't happen every month. >> Hopefully October will be better. I I prefer to to see this. By the way, I'm very happy that we're actually, you know, breaking out right now. I'm personally very happy with it. I think it was uh needed. I think it was really needed for the market to show us uh that I think that we needed a little bit more um you know, more room and more of an expansion. No more compression, no more consolidation.

I mean, obviously now we're consolidating, but that makes sense after such a large breakout. >> So, yeah, that makes sense to me personally. So, should we skip Mondays because that would be a good good strategy. No, you know, this is not every month. Okay. It is not every month. It is not every month. It is not every month. It was just September. September was just not good on Mondays. Like I just didn't perform well personally on a Monday.

What I will do by the end of this month, I will analyze this. I will go through every Monday, every Monday trade. And I'm going to review why. But yeah, Mondays were uh something that I could have in September avoided. But that is easy to say in hindsight, >> right? That is easy to say on in hindsight. [snorts] I do understand why because it's it is a bit harder to trade on Mondays usually because you're dealing with the open of the week and in the open the especially Asia right yeah you create the weekly candle the weekly candle gets created a new weekly candle gets printed so the moment it's Tuesday Wednesday Thursday you have an understanding of how the weekly candle has opened already that gives you a little bit more of an advantage than on a Monday okay but then also on a Friday when we closed the weekly candle, right?

Same thing pretty much. So, yeah, I think that was just a September thing. A ranging thing kind of a ranging uh ranging condition as well throughout the month of September until now. >> [snorts] >> Yeah. Now we can we can't seem to go higher, man. We're really struggling here. Really really struggling. Okay. So yeah, anyways guys, honestly, I think that we have a uh a little bit of a shorter stream today, but we got into a quick scop.

Um to be honest, that was for me personally the best possible entry for a quick trade. Like I wouldn't see any other entry throughout this session at least in this last hour and a half since 9 8:30 till 9. I wouldn't say that I would have done anything different than what I've done right now today. Okay, this was the move the break above stop loss below the candle below the very low on the retest and then entry long and then looking for the push towards the low volume note at the 4939 taking profits quickly and no hesitation doing that.

That was it. that that's pretty much the the only possible trade I think we could have taken that made the most sense with the right confirmations in mind of course. Okay. So yeah, I think that's it for not much. Don't set your expectations too high as well this session. And and the reason why is pretty normal. Like, keep in mind, guys, if you make such a large move to the downside and and the market drops 1,500 pips to the downside and it starts to get tighter and it ranges at the bottom near support, yeah, don't expect that price just, you know, will continue.

Usually the next Asian session after that, it takes time to, you know, set the market up again for the next move. So, we're not going to sit here and say, "Oh, we have extremely high expectations for a large big move here in this exact session." We might do that again later on uh throughout the rest of the day. Right? That is kind of the um the idea, thought process. So, I think the mindset was in this session, we take what we can get and we're not going to be greedy and we're going to get it. we're going to get out or we set our stop loss on break even and then we take profits.

I think that was the the most logical move here for this session and that is also the market right is not always about making big amounts of money every day. It's also about understanding the condition that we're at that we're trading in and um managing it in a way where you're you protect your capital uh well enough to um to don't make any stupid m any stupid mistakes. Okay, hope that makes sense right there my friends.

So yeah for now at this current moment in time I would say uh market is just in an air of consolidation. do have some news very soon which could impact gold by the way. It is the Australian uh Bank of Australia interest rate decision and um yeah anyways pay attention to this a little bit okay cuz the forecast is they're going to they're going to increase interest rates as well okay by 30 base points. This might have a little bit of an impact on gold because it's the Australian interest rate decision.

Uh which can have some impact on gold on the metals as well. Okay, that is just something I would say pay attention to this. This is in around 2 hours from now. Okay, hope that makes sense right there. Uh anyways, I'm not going to look for shorts now. Uh we are above the value area of today. Uh let let the market develop a little bit. That that's my suggestion. Let the market develop a little bit here. This becomes a very choppy range.

Unless you're willing to trade the range like we did just now, right? The trade range, you find support, you respect the very low and you break above the very high and the port of control of today, which is then also the VWAP. The VWAP, the port of control, which allows us to enter a trade. But that's it. Okay. All right, guys. Very simple, nothing crazy, but I hope it makes sense to you guys. Okay, thank you for joining along.

I wish you a very nice rest of your day or night. And uh we we took what we could get, I would say. Right, that's the mindset today. And hopefully tomorrow we have a bit more clarity again. And maybe we can even see if there is chance of again a larger continuation or maybe even a reversal depending on what the market's going to do and where we close today's daily candle. Yeah, that's what matters. Where we close today's daily candle is going to be extremely important for us to understand Wednesday where we will be what we'll be looking for a continuation or a reversal.

Okay, amazing guys. have a great day and I'm really looking forward to see uh you guys thriving, getting better traders, becoming better verses of yourself. I would say trading really reflects of who you are as an individual. So I think I want to see you grow throughout this craft, but you have to take it serious and you have to ask yourself the question, do you really want this? Like do you really want to become a successful trader?

Because it's not only about the fun, about the dopamine, about the quick trades, about the ah [ __ ] it, let me join you, right? For for fun. Let's just go for it. It's about making serious decisions, setting up a clear process for you. Quantify your setups and making sure that when you quantify your setups that you understand the data that comes with that. Only those traders that actually do that are the successful ones.

That is just what I've experienced around me continuously. Those guys that treat the market like that are the ones that are going to win in the long term. And um you have to ask yourself the question, do you want to become part of that? Yes or no. So let that be a thought for you later today and then we'll talk to each other tomorrow again. Okay. Perfect. My friends, have a good day. Thank you very much. I'll see you tomorrow.

[music] What's up? >> Hey, what's up? [music] >> Hey, what's up? [music] Hey [music] [music] them back [music] girls [music] >> [music] >> Hey hey hey. [music] dirty. Put [music] them bad girls. Put them bad girls dirty. [music]