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Let's Talk Money! with Joseph Hogue, CFA · @josephhogue
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expanded its PYUSD coin to 70 global markets integrating it into PayPal wallet and seeing over 200% growth last year. Now, I'm preparing a full video on this theme, but folks, stablecoins are going to be the biggest and most surprising growth stories over the next
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Not only is Broadcom critical in TPU and accelerator chips in the semiconductor supply chain, but it also provides some of the best networking hardware and software. The recent weakness makes it easier for management to surprise on the upside here with the stock closing up after two of the last four earnings reports.
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story before. There are plenty of other AI-related growth stocks to buy and I'd rather avoid the riskiest like Coreweave and ENBIAS. Generate Biomedicines ticker GENB is on a completely different side of AI. A clinical-stage biotech using
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Hey Bowtie Nation, Joseph with your weekly stock market update. This week Nvidia earnings proving the AI boom is not slowing down. But with that stock going sideways for a month, I'm looking for the next Nvidia sized returns. I found eight stocks Nvidia itself is investing billions into along with the stocks it's ditched recently. I'm going to reveal those stocks I'm buying, but more importantly, stick around for the stocks I'm not buying because three earnings reports just flashed a giant warning on the economy and and nobody
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Hey Bowtie Nation, Joseph with your weekly stock market update. This week Nvidia earnings proving the AI boom is not slowing down. But with that stock going sideways for a month, I'm looking for the next Nvidia sized returns. I found eight stocks Nvidia itself is investing billions into along with the stocks it's ditched recently. I'm going to reveal those stocks I'm buying, but more importantly, stick around for the stocks I'm not buying because three earnings reports just flashed a giant warning on the economy and and nobody is talking about this yet.
This is going to be the biggest market news of the year and you need to hear it. But first, Nvidia just sent investors a message. The AI investment boom is not slowing down. Earnings crushed expectations and management is now forecasting another 70% revenue growth next year. But as much as we love CEO Jensen Huang and company, you cannot build an AI portfolio around just one stock. And Nvidia has spent much of the last three months going sideways anyway.
So where do you find that next leg of the AI trade? Well, how about the stocks Nvidia itself is buying? We can see these inside investments through the company's 13F reports. A mandatory filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission, the SEC, that is the closest thing to insider information you can get without the handcuffs that go with it. The 13F is a quarterly snapshot of stocks owned by big money investors, companies and hedge funds.
A way for the government to monitor that insider trading. You can always find these 13F filings by going to the SEC Edgar database online and then searching for the company name, then click through where you see the 13F report for a list of those investments. And Nvidia's August filing is staggering. Eight investments worth $63.5 billion as of June 30th. With this, Nvidia isn't just an AI chip giant anymore. At that scale, its disclosed portfolio would be a massive investment company all by itself.
Now, I'm going to walk you through each of these stocks, why Nvidia might be buying the shares, and which I would buy. Stick around because I'll also be comparing this most recent report with last year's, which shows some big changes in Nvidia's investing strategy, dropping four popular stocks altogether. First here is Coherent, ticker COHR, one of the companies building the physical plumbing behind AI, and up 196% over the last year.
Coherent makes the lasers, optical components, and compound semiconductors that move enormous amounts of data between GPUs and servers in data centers. Nvidia owns almost 7.8 million shares worth over $3 billion here during this report for about 4% ownership of the company. Earlier this year, the companies announced a multi-year partnership including a $2 billion Nvidia investment and a purchase commitments for Coherent's optical products.
As AI clusters scale to millions of GPUs within them, networking and optical interconnects become increasingly critical. For investors, Coherent is a picks and shovels play on this massive networking problem that created by AI infrastructure growth. And while I like Broadcom and Arista Networks for this networking theme as well, Coherent gets the nod from Nvidia. Coreweave, ticker CRWV, is probably the most obvious Nvidia ecosystem investment, though I've also got a pretty strong opinion on this one, and it's not great.
This is an AI-focused cloud provider building massive data centers packed with Nvidia GPUs, essentially renting AI computing power to companies that that don't want to build the infrastructure themselves. Nvidia owns 47 million shares worth $4.7 billion, a giant 8% stake in the company and one of its largest outside investors. The company's expanded their partnership in January with Nvidia investing another $2 billion as Coreweave targets more than 5 gigawatts of AI factories by 2030.
And the investment case here is straightforward. If demand for AI compute keeps exploding, Coreweave sells that capacity. My problem here, besides the massive $10 billion a year hole free cash flow is is I've seen this story before and when the AI theme does fall apart, this is going to be where the most pain is going to be. Nation, understand back in the '80s it was the IBM mainframe leasing companies that buying those room-sized computers to rent out to other companies.
What started as a totally legit business model ran into trouble when those technological advances made their equipment obsolete and and the company was stuck, eventually cooking the books to cover its bankruptcy. Now, as long as that AI build-out as long as trillions of dollars are spent on data center construction, Coreweave and Nebius, which will also see on this list, both are going to look like strong growth stocks to buy.
The problem is when cracks do start to appear and show that AI spending race is slowing out, this is where you're going to see it first. Hyperscalers like Meta and Amazon will have built out all the data center capacity that they need and won't need to be leasing from these companies. Even as AI spending continues, though, these companies may never be cash flow positive or profitable. Coreweave burned through $10 billion in cash over the last year and it's going to need to continue to spend heavily buying that new AI chips and hardware every time Nvidia upgrades its chips.
Now, I know this is not a popular opinion right now and all Coreweave investors are going to rush to troll the comments, but I'm speaking from experience here, folks. Over 25 years investing and 10 years as a professional analyst, I've seen this story before. There are plenty of other AI-related growth stocks to buy and I'd rather avoid the riskiest like Coreweave and ENBIAS. Generate Biomedicines ticker GENB is on a completely different side of AI.
A clinical-stage biotech using machine learning and generative biology to design entirely new proteins and drug candidates. Nvidia owns 833,000 shares worth just $14 million, making it easily the smallest 13F position. But, what's even more interesting is what Nvidia sold, the stock that it owned in the same AI biotech space just last year. It sold in favor of this. I'll be covering that stock and this change in strategy later on in the video.
And Generate just went public in February and its lead candidate, GBO895, is already in phase three trials for severe asthma. To me, this looks like Nvidia making a relatively small bet on one of AI's potentially enormous applications beyond computing, that drug discovery phase. And for investors, the upside could be very good on a small $2 billion company, but this is still clinical stage biotech, so the risk is a lot higher than some of these others on the list.
Intel, ticker INTC, is the monster bet for Nvidia with almost 215 million shares worth almost $30 billion. And that alone is nearly half the entire disclosed portfolio at quarter end and 4% ownership in Intel. And this isn't simply Nvidia betting on a competitor. The company's announced a major partnership to jointly develop data center and PC chips with Intel building Nvidia custom X86 CPUs that connect directly with Nvidia GPUs using NVLink.
Strategically, Nvidia gets tighter integration into the CPU market, something it's lacked versus AMD and Intel in the past. Nebia's Group, ticker NBIS, is the other data center leasing company here, larger than Coreweave, and the shares have held up much better, up 186% over the last year. Nvidia's 13F shows it owns almost 1.2 million shares worth $328 million, although other reports also include securities that not reflected in common shares here, so a deeper investment than what might appear.
Nvidia announced a $2 billion strategic investment in March as the companies partnered on next-generation hyperscale AI cloud infrastructure. Uh this company does have the same problem I outlined with Coreweave, though it is in a better financial position, only burning through $6 billion in cash over the last year. So, if you're going to go with one of these data center leasing companies, I'd say Nebia's is the better investment.
Nokia, ticker NOK, might look like the oddball until you understand what Nvidia wants from it. Nvidia owns 166 million Nokia ADRs or shares worth $2.2 billion. The companies are partnering around AI RAN, 5G advanced, and eventually 6G, bringing Nvidia computing into telecom networks. Nvidia originally announced a $1 billion investment in Nokia. Well, Nokia is developing a RAN software to to run on Nvidia architecture and exploring its optical and data center networking technologies for future Nvidia infrastructure.
And Nokia here is the least AI-related on the list, and slower growth with sales expected up just 4% this year. It's also one of the least expensive, though, on a price-to-sales and price-to-earnings basis. So, might be worth watching on that Nvidia sponsorship. And SpaceX, ticker SPCX, is Nvidia's second largest investment on 122 million shares worth upwards of $21 billion at the time of this filing. Now, this doesn't necessarily mean that Nvidia rushed out to buy SpaceX during the quarter, as some of this reflects the company's earlier investment in XAI before combined with SpaceX.
That AI part of SpaceX is scaling its Grok infrastructure using Nvidia Vera Rubin and plans on extending the relationship into orbital AI infrastructures. So, this could still develop into something bigger. Shares have rebounded here from the post-IPO crash, but still have a lot of early investors to unlock. So, I still think this one stays under pressure through at least early December. I'm going to cover those changes to the Nvidia investing strategy, along with some big news for this week on some of our favorite stocks, including Palo Alto Networks, ticker PANW, and PayPal, PYPL.
But Synopsys, ticker SNPS, sits at another critical layer of the semiconductor ecosystem, the software engineers use to design and verify chips, and increasingly entire complex systems. Nvidia owns 4.8 million shares worth $2.1 billion after After $2 billion as part of an expanded strategic partnership around last December, the companies are combining Nvidia accelerated computing, Agility AI, and Omniverse with Synopsys engineering and electronic design automation tools.
Just as interesting here as those eight stocks Nvidia is buying right now is what it's not buying. Comparing Nvidia's portfolio with the report from a year ago, the change is pretty dramatic. Last year Nvidia reported six positions: Applied Digital, ARM Holdings, Coreweave, Nebius, Recursion Pharmaceuticals, and We Ride. Today, only Coreweave and Nebius are still on this list. Nvidia almost doubled its shares in Coreweave, and the entire portfolio boomed from just 4.3 billion to over 63 billion dollars.
Now, Nvidia is generating a mountain of cash, over 127 billion dollars in free cash flow over the last year, and is building its control across the entire AI ecosystem. Intel for processors and computing, Coherent for optical connectivity, Nokia for telecom infrastructure, Synopsys for chip design, Coreweave and Nebius for AI cloud capacity, and and then frontier applications through Generate and SpaceX. Nvidia already dominates that GPU market.
Its investment increasingly look like bets on everything that makes those GPUs more useful, and expanding the market for accelerated computing, possibly a monopoly on the AI world. Now, we've got another giant week of earnings for cybersecurity stocks after seeing those jump as much as 30% and adding 21,000 dollars in returns to my portfolio last week. I'm going to highlight Palo Alto Networks, ticker PANW, and Zscaler next.
But first, if you haven't yet, use the special invite link below to join me on the Blossom Investing app and see every stock in my portfolio. It's totally free to use and helps support this channel, so I appreciate that. And you're going to get to see what over 500,000 investors are talking about in the social feed. So, look for that invite link below, or just scan the QR code here. Palo Alto Networks, ticker PANW, starts another big earnings week for cybersecurity with its report on Wednesday and the stock up 93% over the last year.
Following last week's bump in the group when CrowdStrike Holdings ticker CRWD reported blowout numbers, 26% revenue growth. The five cybersecurity stocks I owned jumped an average 9% on that day with Palo Alto my best return so far, a return of 136% the largest pure play cybersecurity company. PANW is expected to post 32% sales growth for the quarter and investors are going to be watching for it to update on its 24% expected growth for the year.
The surprise earnings last week from CrowdStrike and Okta make it a little harder to surprise this week and Palo Alto hasn't done a great job of managing those expectations. We can see here the stock has fallen on three of the last four earnings reports falling between 5 to 7% on the news. Analysts are getting a little worried as well with the average price target of $369 per share about where the stock is at now and a low target 43% of the downside.
That said, while the stock is expensive going into its earnings, I'll hold my position and buy any dips. Though I wouldn't be going heavy with any new buys just yet. Broadcom ticker AVGO also reports earnings on Wednesday with the shares down 25% from the June peak, though still up 640% over the five-year period. The recent weakness has been on competitor Marvell Technology ticker MRVL and its deal to supply specialized AI chips to Google, something that has been done primarily by Broadcom before.
Now competition aside, AVGO is still one of my favorite AI picks and shovels stocks and with revenue still expected to grow 66% this year to $106 billion. Not only is Broadcom critical in TPU and accelerator chips in the semiconductor supply chain, but it also provides some of the best networking hardware and software. The recent weakness makes it easier for management to surprise on the upside here with the stock closing up after two of the last four earnings reports.
Though those down days were doozies at more than 11% drop. The average analyst price target is for $509 per share, roughly 38% upside over the next year. And even the most bearish analyst is forecasting a 6% upside to $390 per share. So, I'd be picking up shares here, especially on any post-earnings dips. Zscaler ticker ZS has seen its shares down 33% this year ahead of its earnings report this Thursday. Though buying during the April lows has helped drive a 30% return on my position.
I highlighted Friday that this is the least expensive cybersecurity stock in my portfolio, especially given the strong 24% revenue growth expected and 25% earnings growth to $4.13 a share. And that puts the stock at a valuation of nine times price to sales and 44 times price to earnings. That PE ratio, expensive on most accounts, but very cheap compared to these others in this fast-growing cybersecurity space. Now, some of that low valuation is warranted though, as I do see Zscaler as the most exposed to any AI-related demand destruction in software.
I don't think it happens this year or probably even next, but we're likely to see the market sell off on software stocks again, and it will hit this one harder than some of these other cybersecurity names. Management has not done a good job with expectations in the past, and the stock has fallen on all four of the last year's earnings reports by as much as 31% last quarter. I do actually think that makes it a more attractive into this week's earnings though.
Investors are braced for disappointment and bad news, which means anything good could send the stock jumping higher again. And PayPal ticker PYPL got crushed double digits Friday when the company rejected a buyout offer from Stripe and private equity firm Advent for $60.50 per share. But there are two reasons you might take another look and pick up shares here. First, even on sluggish growth of just 4.6% in sales this year, the company still processes $2 trillion in payments a year with 440 million active accounts.
That scale is valuable in the payment space, and a reorganization under the new CEO is targeting $1.5 billion in in savings along with a better focus for the company. That and the stock's inexpensive valuation at just 10 times price to earnings, that P/E ratio, makes it one to watch for a turnaround. Bigger than that though is the reason for the buyout offer in the first place. PayPal's first mover advantage in the stablecoin market.
The company has expanded its PYUSD coin to 70 global markets integrating it into PayPal wallet and seeing over 200% growth last year. Now, I'm preparing a full video on this theme, but folks, stablecoins are going to be the biggest and most surprising growth stories over the next 2 years because the government needs it to be. Understand that unlike traditional banks that might hold just 8 cents worth of US government treasury bonds for every $1 in deposits, regulations under the genius act require stablecoin issuers to hold as much as $1 of treasury bonds for every dollar stablecoin issued.
Now, the stablecoin market is still tiny at just $300 billion, but estimates are for it to grow to as much as $4 trillion over the next 5 years. That could mean stablecoin issuers would have to buy as much as 3.7 trillion in government debt pushing down the interest rate the government pays on its $40 trillion in debt. Nation, this is the next theme that nobody is watching, but is going to be one of the biggest trends on Wall Street.
The government is going to be pushing stablecoin legislation through. It is going to make the industry grow because it's the only way it can make its interest payments on its own debt. Now, besides PayPal, there are other stocks I'm going to highlight in that upcoming video including Circle Internet Group ticker CRCL and Robinhood ticker HOOD. Now, I've highlighted the stocks I'm buying and watching here, but more importantly are the stocks I'm not buying.
Retail and anything consumer driven. This is the biggest market news nobody is talking about and you need to be paying attention to this. First, Walmart reported US comparable sales grew just 2.6% last quarter, the weakest growth in more than 6 years, and way below forecast for 3.8% growth. Shares of Walmart plunged almost 10% on the news, its worst day in 4 years. Now folks, that comparable sales number, sometimes also reported as same-store sales, is your best real-time indicator of consumer health.
It measures consumer spending at a retailer, and if it were just one company, even one as economy-wide as Walmart, then I might not give it too much thought. But it wasn't, because next was Dick's Sporting Goods. Earnings missed expectations, and while overall sales growth was okay, the Foot Locker segment saw comparable sales fall 3.6% over the 3 months. And that news cratered the stock more than 30% on the day, with the CEO warning the industry is carrying too much inventory, and the consumer has been even more cautious than expected.
Then Kohl's put another nail in the consumer's coffin, reporting its own comp sales fell another 0.9% marking the retailer's 18th consecutive quarterly decline. The CEO here specifically pointed out financial pressures on lower and middle-class shoppers, saying "Our customers are experiencing persistent financial pressure from inflation and in their everyday experiences." Now we will get an update on consumer health this Friday with the important monthly jobs report.
Last month's report showed a surprisingly unexpected loss of 23,000 jobs in July, and while we're likely to add some of that back in August, it is clear the jobs market is getting worse. Over the last year, just 31,000 jobs have been added each month on average. That is well under the roughly 50,000 jobs the US needs to add every month to keep unemployment from rising. And nation while tech spending around AI will keep this bull market charging, the consumer is clearly weak and getting weaker.
Between inflation, sluggish hiring, and even some AI-related job losses now, this is not the time to be buying up stocks of companies selling directly to the consumer market. The consumer discretionary sector is the second worst group this year, with the XLY ETF down 3% on the year. Among the 10 largest companies in the sector, six are down for the year, including Tesla, TSLA, down 21%, Home Depot down 4%, McDonald's down 15%, and TJX Companies down 13%.
Amazon here is doing well on its cloud services division related to AI, but of the 47 stocks in consumer discretionary, 25 are lower on the year, and many of the rest are likely to follow. Join me on the Blossom app and see all the stocks in my portfolio with the invite link below. Don't forget to join the Let's Talk Money community by tapping that subscribe button.
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