Bitcoin Dubious Speculation transcript

Hey everyone, and thanks for jumping back into the cryptoverse. Today, we're going to talk about Bitcoin dubious speculation. If you guys like the content, make sure you subscribe to the channel, give the video a thumbs-up, and also check out the sale on IntoTheCryptoverse Premium at intothecryptoverse.com. As a reminder, we do have the first investing through the cycles conference coming up uh in late November, so make sure you guys get your ticket.

Link is in the description below. Let's go ahead and jump in. So, I, again, am recording this video on September 9th. This is the last video I'm recording before I head out to New Zealand, and I will be gone for about 10 days. So, all of the videos that you've been watching for the last week or whatever were all pre-recorded. And right now, Bitcoin's trading at $79,000. I could not begin to tell you where it's going to be in a week or whenever I end up releasing this video.

I don't know, okay? What I do know is that when you have golden crosses, you get corrections, regardless of whether the low is in. Okay? And we talked about this already, but look at 2023. What type of correction should we expect? If you look at 2023, Bitcoin fell about 12%. The low was in, still fell 12% on the golden cross. In 2019, how far did Bitcoin fall on the golden cross? 15%. Now, in 2019, that 15% drop happened over just three or four days.

In 2023, all right, if you look at 2023, the drop after the golden cross, or sorry, starting right before the golden cross and going through it, lasted from February 2nd until February 13th. So, about about 10 days. But, you have two examples with 10 to 15% corrections. And the reason why people like these examples is because if you look at the weekly, you look at the weekly, um once Bitcoin breaks through, right? Well, once you see that it sort of breaks through the bull market support band at the end or at the beginning of 2019, at the beginning of 2023, is there a relevant way to to make that comparison?

It's relevant, right? I mean, in fact, you could argue that it it doesn't really look that different from this right here in in 2019 or what we saw here in 2023. But, even in that case, Bitcoin still dropped 10 to 15%. And in the other cases where the low was not in, like in 2015, you had a golden cross, uh and it occurred, I think, in like the August July August time frame. So, if you if you zoom in uh to 2015, you can see the Bitcoin rallied well above the bull market support band.

And we had a golden cross right here. Sorry, right here. That marked the top. And then from July 12th until about August 17th, Bitcoin fell about 50%. And in 2014 after the golden cross, you can see there was a golden cross right here. Bitcoin topped just before it. From that local top just before the golden cross until the next sort of major low, it was about a 50 to 60% drop. And that was into the October low. But, what's interesting is in both of those in in both the 2014 and 2015 golden crosses, and the 2019 and 2023 golden crosses, you still had at least a 10 to 15% correction that took place over just a few days to a week or two.

And in the case of the bear market continuing like in 2014 and 2015. And I guess also if you want to include the pandemic because when we got the pandemic there was a basically Bitcoin rallied up to the prior high and you can see that Bitcoin topped just before right like just before the high and then it fell of course 60%. But even in that case before the pandemic occurred, you still had a drop that was about 20% and then you got a bounce and then we kind of had the pandemic hit.

So I couldn't tell you exactly where Bitcoin is going to be a week from now. Probably not 79K but if we were to measure this from the local high a 10% drop would put Bitcoin around 73 to 74K. Okay? A 15% drop would put it at closer to 70K. That would be within the realm of expectation. The low to mid-70s. That would be even it would even make sense if this is a bull market, right? It would make sense. Where it would not make sense for a bull market would be if it drops and then forms a lower high on the bounce.

That would be more reminiscent of 2014-2015. Now you might say, "Well, how is 2014-2015 relevant?" You know, at the beginning of this year I told people very plainly because if you remember at the beginning of this year there were a lot of ISM guys saying the ISM's going to go up in 2014 or sorry, the ISM's going to go up in 2026. Therefore, Bitcoin will go up. And I pointed out to them that in 2014 the ISM went up and Bitcoin went down.

Fast forward to today, we can see that's what happened. The ISM went up, Bitcoin went down. So it's not like there's no reason to compare to 2014 and 2015. In fact, in in the same way that that Bitcoin has rallied back up to a prior high, just sort of south of it, the same thing actually happened in 2014 and in 2015, right? The same thing. So, it's not that you can't make the comparison. I mean, look at this. There was a high, a low, and then Bitcoin rallied back up, stayed up there for a while, and eventually fell down into October.

And then in 2015, there was a high, we swept it, and then eventually fell off into a recession scare. So, it's not that those things can't happen, right? Like, they can happen. They just didn't happen in 2019 and 2023. So, what I would argue is if this does play out, right? Like, if Bitcoin does drop down, I would say, you know, somewhere between 70, 75k, or something. If it drops down and then gets a rally in this area, look to see if it's a lower high or a higher high.

And only a lower high. And by the way, I don't I don't mean you don't have to wait long, right? I mean, it should just be relatively quickly. It should take place over just a few weeks. That is where, you know, you you'll have the window if Bitcoin wants to put in a higher high. It should happen relatively quickly once the bounce is here. Because look at look at 2019. Like, once once that red death cross rally was over, we had a massive rally back up to put in a local high just over the span of a week.

In 2019, the same thing, right? Like, once once we had the drop, we were back at new new local highs within about a week or so. So, if we don't get a rally to a new local high, then the implication is that the low is still ahead of us. If we get if we drop down to 70 or 75 and rally up to new highs, that would make me a lot more inclined to believe more of of the bull case. Where if it if it's repeating, you know, something like this, but this far into the bear market, it would probably have a little bit more legs on it.

I I don't want to promise that because it's not like it's impossible for for this to happen, right? Like that's actually what happened in 2023. Um it it dropped, rallied, and then dropped. So, that could happen, but if that happens, I would think that there's a higher chance that the low is in. Meaning, it would it could do this, it could go like down, up, and then back down, but then it would likely just head back up in that case.

So, I think if if you're looking for it to head back down here, you would want to see a lower high form, uh and then and then come back down. And and that's kind of essentially what happened in um you know, in 2014-2015. So, those are my thoughts. That's the dubious speculation. I don't want to ramble too much because I don't know what Bitcoin's going to be doing in a week. I mean, my guess would be it would be between somewhere between 70 and 75k.

Uh but if it's not, then there's this analysis is wrong, and there's no reason to put a lot of weight into it. But that is what I'd be looking at here as that golden cross did just arrive. If you guys like the content, make sure you subscribe to the channel, give the video a thumbs up, and also check out the sale on intothecryptoversepremium at intothecryptoverse.com. I'll see you guys next time. Bye.