🔴LIVE DAY TRADING | GOLD & NQ | VOLUME + ORDERFLOW | EPISODE 112 | GC / XAU USD - NQ / NASDAQ transcript

All right. What's happening, my friends? Welcome back to episode number 112. I hope you guys are 12. Wait, wait, wait. >> Yes. FOC, baby. FOC is behind us. Uh, finally the news has been completed and it's been done. So, it's time to get back to uh hopefully the the regular the regulars uh the normal the normal work here. Next week, we have to deal with a couple more things, but only small things. I think this was the big one, the FOMC that we witnessed today, right?

A 25 base point hike. Uh gold indeed decided to continue to drop again. And we're going to talk about where it actually got rejected from and why. And I think that was extremely important to watch and pay attention to. And then it did happen. Then gold did decide to drop further and continue its momentum. Um not until now though. We are now back at where we came from pretty much yesterday where we started our journey.

So yeah, we're going to talk about that here. All right. Uh let me see where we have us with us in the building today. Good to see you. Uh let me have a check. Let me have a check. There we go. Let's see. The man Nate, good to see you, man. Ronaldo, how are you? Uh, Cortes, good to see you. Jay, good to see you. Uh, Paul, how are you doing, my friend? Welcome back. Good to see you. Uber kids, Felix, good to see you. Kang Cipher Lon the man live.

Jason, how are you? Mr. reality. Good to see you as always. Evil joke. I do man. Okay. Familiar face are back. Adelaide. Hello. Jam our moderator. Derek. Yes. Okay man. Let's get the party started here. I want to get that same tune back. I like that tune. I want to get the tune back. Where is it? Where is that tune? Provoc. Okay. Welcome back, baby. Let's make it [music] work. pull up. [music] Oh, [music] that [music] >> [music] >> What?

[music] Ah! [music] Ah! [music] Ah ah [music] ah ah. Show me. [music] Heat. [music] [music] Heat. [music] >> [music] >> I don't want to [music] [music] die. [music] >> [music] >> Okay, [music] welcome back, baby. Another day, another day. Another another challenge. Every day is a challenge in a good way, right? We're looking for those challenges every single day. Uh gold did what it had to do, man. Gold decided to continue drop its momentum to the downside yesterday after the FMC indeed increased 25 basis points.

That was really interesting here. Yeah. Okay. Major push down from gold. Also a major push up from the dollar. Look at the dollar. Dollar broke above major supply. It broke above that range. It's now heading back towards the top of the initial push here that we saw. So gold the dollar broke out again. Okay, that is interesting. Okay, that is interesting to see here. Uh number one, what were kind of the things that we were looking at?

Okay, they raised 25 base points of course from 350 375 to 375 4%. Okay, the vote was unanimous 120 12 and0 and the Federal Reserve said that the inflation data remains elevated and explicitly stated the hike is intended to get inflation back towards the blah blah blah blah blah 2%. Okay. The problem though is if oil is is ripping up which is actually is now in resistance by the way. We'll talk about in a second then inflation will probably remain higher and it will be very hard to do that.

Okay. But again inflation is still the main problem. So right now at the moment yeah we're not really dealing with any um yeah we're kind of dealing more with stackflation than we do with deflation. That's for sure. Okay. Anyways we are uh back at where we came from. So how are we going to deal with it today? what are the levels that we look for and what is our bias? I think most importantly, what is our bias for the session, right?

Um, yeah, a little bit different than yesterday. Yesterday we were in a range. I mean, we broke out of the range later on, but you can't really control that, right? So, that's not really a problem, but we were in a range. So, we had more of a ranging type of uh structure. Specifically yesterday, of course, before that breakout, we were pretty much doing nothing, right? We're pretty much flat inside of this area right here.

Um, until we actually broke out of it, of course, but we were pretty much inside of that area. Now, we have a bit more structure. Right now, you can actually see that price did something different. Price pretty much came up, right? And it then heavily got rejected. It broke down and now we have some sort of retracement. So, I wouldn't call this predominantly a range at the moment or near I wouldn't call this the same condition as yesterday, but I think that right now what we're seeing here is just a little bit more of a pullback scenario.

So, the question is, is this a rip back to the highs? Are we going to try to push up higher or are we now at major resistance and should we be very careful with longing here? Let me know what you guys think in the chat. I'm going to only give you my answer right now, but I'm actually very curious here. While you're giving me that answer, I'll give you an answer too about where we got rejected from at the top. And that was the previous weekly point of control.

The previous weekly point of control right there. You see that? Yeah. The previous weekly range and we had the value area of the previous week, right? We never had to deal with this until yesterday. So, we had that and look at where we got rejected from. You see that? Right there. Right there. We call that the previous weekly value area. And the value area low of the previous week, that's the previous weekly low was the rejection.

Look at that right there. Pretty strong rejection if you tell me, right? If you ask me, pretty strong rejection right there. Okay, look at that. Actually the group or our community actually decided to go long before I think many of us hit ATP uh yesterday in the New York uh session while trading the FMC again. So even though price broke out and we had our trade in the morning in Asia, I still decided to trade New York and again take a long and again had a TP and what did we targeted?

We targeted the I need to show you guys. We targeted the previous weekly very low. That is where we got rejected from. You see that previously very low right there. Boom. What happened? We were back. We tapped into the point of control of the developing day. The VWAP. Okay. So the point of control and the VWAP. We then also were undervalued against the dollar on the 15 minute and the 5 minute time frame. And the order flow according to what someone shared here in the group right [music] there.

The order flow showed us that there were a lot of trapped sellers at the bottom when price stepped into the VWAP. So there was a very clear long right here. Look at all those sellers at the VWAP at the bottom stock trapped whatever you want to call it right there. Right? So that is a combination of a u of a new trade again and then you target the next major value area which was then of course the value area low of the previous week.

So, there was another trade right there later on. Right there. And big trade. Yeah, we only go for the one lots. You guys know it right there, right? [snorts] Um, anyways, so we reached our target as well. That was very nice. And I think many of us took that same position right there. I think Billy took it. Um, Ken took it. A couple guys in the group took it as well. Sh. Yeah, many many in elite actually. Very nice. But anyways, okay. rejection at the previous very low rate hike blahy blah right price broke structure [music] keep in mind right that we have a lot of um consolidation now below us okay so what I'm trying to do here is I try to understand the structure better okay but we got rejected at the previous week very low we're no longer in that range so I I don't think we can take the same setup as yesterday because yesterday was very clear we had that range manipulation setup right if you if you didn't understand the setup yesterday from the playbook that we have right the range manipulation.

Yeah, highly recommend you to watch that video back or uh yeah, pretty much uh yeah, watch that video back or watch the telegram. Well, we're dropping a video either today or uh or tomorrow max. Uh the range manipulation with the sequence right right here at specific sequence. Today is a bit different. Today I'm looking much more at a CME play. Okay, the CME quote unquote reversal play. Actually, hey, it is called CME reversal.

Okay. And the main reason why look at the semi- reversal uh is because we are clearly uh bearish right now at the moment and we have to be a little bit careful with trying to counter trend long here. I prefer to continue this momentum if we get an opportunity and I'll show you how it's going to look like. So the C reversal is a similar setup to that. What do we have here? Right. The range from yesterday okay was here.

You see that we had our manipulation actually before the news came out into the previous week is very low right so you can still long there we took a long there right etc etc right there but now we are dealing with something different now we're dealing with of course what we call the um sorry the range manipulation and now we have seen the expansion right here you see that we're seeing the expansion So this is the CME uh pattern or the CE scenario that I'm always watching.

When I see that very clearly, I take it very serious. So what do I do then? Instead of taking the day or the time profiles like the previous day etc. I look at the range itself. So I take the range from the left to the right. Right? I mark out the range and look at that. What do we have here? We have the very high. We have the very low. Yes, we are in the very low. Okay. However, the structure is different. We're not in a range now.

We're kind of getting rejected from it. And what do we have here? Let me know what you guys are seeing. Uh if you guys can see what I see here, but this is probably something that we're looking at right now. And we're going to mark out the port of control right there. Okay. So, the port of control right now is where we are finding already some resistance here. If you guys can see it at the moment, the PC of that range is now that resistance.

Okay. So I want you to be very careful with longing now at this current moment because you are in a major level of resistance here. That's number one. Then secondary if you do take out the previous day and we mark out the previous day the fixed range as a second opinion and we take it from the left to the right to the open 6 p.m. close 6 p.m. Then what is another level where we're getting rejected from right now? Maybe you can see it.

Let me know in the chat. right there. P very low. You see that previous daily very low and a control most of them or both of them right now are holding us back from pushing down. You see that the previous day very low of yesterday and the port of control of that range which is that CME play that we're trying to talk about right around there. Okay. Now at the same time look at the valuation below. Now the valuation matters again.

Okay, cuz we're now in in a new kind of setup where this is relevant to us. Okay. Uh where are we? We are overvalued against the dollar. Okay, look at that. We're overvalued against the dollar in this case, right? The dollar is back. We're pushing up higher. Gold dropped lower. So we take the dollar. You can see that we're overvalued right here. You see that? And every time we're overvalued, we create what? We create pullbacks.

You see that? Overvalued right there. We create pullbacks, right? Overvalued. Whoa. We create pullbacks. Overvalued. Pullback. Overvalued. Pull back. Overvalued. Drop. Right. Pull back. Push down. So, see how many times it actually decides to drop or pull back. Even in an uptrend, right? Temporarily, you can see that it drops. So, why should we go long now when we're overvalued, when we have that resistance there? Does it make sense?

I don't think it's it's reasonable to go long. Personally, I think it's too risky. Okay, the dollar is strong, broke out, etc., etc., etc., etc. Hope that makes sense, my friends here. So, that's why I'm still more short biased right now after the drop than long biased trying to trade the pullback. Okay, so what is the confirmation again? It's the same old riddle as yesterday. It's the same old freaking riddle. Okay, go to the 5m minute time frame.

That is the resistance. That is not a trade yet. We look at the profile of today, the volume profile of today. So we mark out the volume profile of the developing day. Hey, the protoc shifted to the upside. You see that? That means that more volume is getting transacted at the top, not at the bottom. If it was here, this could have been support. Now it's resistance. Okay. So look at that. The volume profile of today shows that the most volume has been traded at the top.

That means that buyers probably have been trying to buy and trying to break out, but they failed to do so. Right. So, let's confirm it in the order flow right there. Let's go to the 15-minut time frame. And that is indeed correct. The delta has been positive since the open. Green 24725. So, more people are trying to buy than sell. You see that? What are we trying to do? We're now breaking below that. Okay? So, buyers are trapped.

Okay? Hope that makes sense right here. This is what we all take in account. It's like a step-by-step process for us to say, okay, we're we're definitely dealing with a lot of quote unquote resistance here. Okay, now we do have a range here that we have to mark out as well. And most importantly, we also have the VWAP on the Trading View chart right there. So, what do I prefer to see, guys? What do you guys think I would look for now?

Let me let me know in the chat here. What do you guys think I would be looking for? Okay, similar to yesterday, like I'm I'm kind of giving you the insights now. Okay, the analysis has been done, but I'm just telling you, okay, what would I be looking for now to actually execute a in this case a short with a confirmation, of course, right? If price decided to break out, maybe a different story, but for now, um, yeah, what is the confirmation?

Yeah, pretty much the same thing as yesterday, right? Uh, break below the VWAP. Okay, break below the freaking VWAP right here. Price breaks below, push back, boom, and we target the lows of the day or yesterday. Sorry, previous day lows right there. Something like that. So, I prefer to do that, right? It's also the value area low of uh today pretty much, right? The very low of today. If you can break below that box, the developing profile of today, I think that sellers are still in control pretty much in all directions.

And I think that is for us enough of a reason to look for uh to enter shorts and to put our stop loss uh above the point of control above a certain hybrid. Buyers are stuck and then we look for the confirmation I guess at this area and then we'll look for their cells and then we take our shorts down towards the Pday lows I guess. Yeah. Okay. All right. So that is kind of the sequence uh for for like the analysis here.

Uh obviously you never know what's going to happen, right? But again the conclusion from my perspective is that longing right now is the most tricky around this area. Definitely here the ponto shifted to the upside. So buyers are trying to step in and they're failing. That's kind of the confirmation that this resistance is legitimate. But in order for us to really like get involved, we need to close below the VWAP, right? we need to close below the VWAP and also maybe put control of the range pretty much the value area of the day.

That is kind of like um the overall confirmation. So we tried to break out of the value area right we kind of failed to do so and now we are trying to break the opposite value area and that is probably then the real trade or the real move that we're looking at and uh yeah let's just then take that as a sell. So it will be something like that I guess. Whoa. And then we'll target the lows. Okay. And then we'll see where we have to put our stop loss.

It depends a little bit on the condition. It depends a little bit on the situation again where we are um how do you say that? Where um yeah, the most traders got involved. So where we saw aggressor selling or like where a lot of buyers tried to enter but fill the gun. It could be that it's going to be above the highs but it depends. it could still change depending if you break it or not, you know. So, yeah, that is kind of the idea and that sums it up pretty well, I think, currently.

Um, other things, additional confirmations, a secondary additional confluences. Yeah. Uh, the daily, look at that. Do you see the dre box there and the dre box there? Now, this is where we are now getting rejected from. Do you see that? Now, that is because we closed below it again. And now that is turning into resistance. So that is kind of the point of control that we talked about. But also the order flow, you can see it as well here.

And my coffee arrived. Perfect timing. Okay. Absolutely amazing. Uh give me one second. Let me get my coffee and then hopefully wait for the um the 900 p.m. volume to come in and hopefully that gives us the confirmation we need. [music] Be right back. baseline. Okay. Yeah. Let's see if we can break below the value area of today. That will be that would be I think the best confirmation possible. Uh because then we actually lose the value area as well.

Uh we're definitely more overvalued still. And I think that the volume is what we need now, right? The 9:00 a.m. volume. 9:00 p.m. volume, sorry. And hopefully we can um we can break it. Okay. All right. Ooh, that's initial push. Let's see if that's a fake out or not. Let's see. I got my vantage portal on the left, sorry, on the right that is connected to my uh account, which is so much better. By the way, I'm really enjoying it, by the way.

It's super super convenient. Super convenient for me right now actually to trade on the same terminal as where we an do our analysis actually. So nice. Yeah, it's a pretty strong push. Not going to lie, it's pretty strong push right now at the moment. So >> hopefully we break it >> and this is just a fake out. that will make so much more um I would not say more sense but like that would give us a more convict a trade with higher conviction let's put it this way but let's see not push it higher now it's actually the opposite Let's look at the order flow real quick.

What a push is that though? Yeah, there is some serious volume behind it though. Like really there is some serious volume behind it. So yo, if that breaks out >> is my is our buyers invalidated. Yeah. Well, if we close above it, it's unfortunate because that would have been a very nice short really. But that's something you cannot control. So hopefully we do that. I love the volume though. I love the 900 p.m. volume coming in.

And I would actually I prefer to trade after that and not before that because this [music] sometimes happens. Imagine in being in a short here already early and then the volume comes in. Should we uh change the song? Yeah, I think so. Watch it drop now. Rata says, "Mon Monday mornings are the worst before 900 PM." Yeah, be careful with the Monday mornings. 900 PM. I do agree on that, by the way. I do agree on that. What would be like an complete invalidation?

I mean, look at this from from a perspective, right? 9:00 p.m. volume actually means the hourly candle came in, right? And this hourly candle shoots up without any bottom. It just shoots up out of nowhere, right? Because the volume kicks in. Um, if this would flip eventually and it would close below the VWAP, the conviction of the trade will be insane. If this uh closes in the 15 minute and it starts to hold up. Yeah, I'm not sure.

Let's see what happens then. It is definitely a big freaking push, that's for sure. Dollar is doing its thing. Dollars continue to rip. So, let's put that on the side for a second. It's a big freaking gamble though. Oh my god. What is it? Uh 180. Wow. That's big. That is huge. Okay. Very high. This is the res this this is resistance. It should be acting as resistance. Reason about watching sell according to the Dow theory that's obviously uptrend in the lower time frame.

Yeah. Well, that's not just a Dow theory that's just the fact like on the lower time frame on the one minute. Yeah, we are in an uptrend. Yes, that's true. Totally true. Before this, your view was buried. Yeah, absolutely. Most definitely cuz you get rejected be below the the fixed range profile, right? You have the range, the manipulation, breakdown, retest. Uh the buyer stepped in filled, right? Uh the confirmation of sells was not there though, right?

We knew this already. So that's why for us it doesn't really matter because we had to close below the VWAP and the value area uh low right for shorts towards the previous daily low. So that would have been a 300 pip move 360 70 pip move as well. Um but yeah that's why we have setups playbooks rules right and we're not just hopping into shorts randomly earlier. it need to made sense or it had to break below that level.

But the fact that this 9 p.m. candle, this China candle we call it, um shoots uh gold up, okay, significantly. All right. [music] Means that a closure back above here though could change the topic a little bit because that means we'll get accepted here instead of rejected and we'll also break inside of the value area of uh today. So yeah, that that is true. Yeah, let's watch this 15-minute closure first then and see where we where we actually close this 15 minute the area is shifting right you can see this right now area is shifting Uh, let's put this there.

Wow, what a rip. It's not uncommon though that that these moves can occur after the news like especially an FC push an FOMC event. miss the opportunity chance in one big candle. If you are what I call so call a candle chaser, we call them we call those traders candle chasers in our in our scene. Candle chasers. These are the guys that think that if a candle pushes up, you miss out on opportunities immediately. Every every candle is an opportunity.

The way we look at the market pretty much is the opposite. The way we look at the market is you have certain things you look for and if you get the confirmation of that, you taking a trade. Otherwise, you wouldn't call that an opportunity. So, I wouldn't personally call this a mixed u an opportunity for for myself. These for me are like opportunities, right? All of those uh things right there. These for me are called opportunities.

Yesterday was a perfect example of that by the way of an opportunity. And um if price would have done X, I would have done Y, right? That to me is an opportunity. So it's also a bit of perspective. We don't have to chase every candle every time. And just because it's a big candle, you know, it doesn't mean that it made sense for me. And um yeah, what would happen if this would flip? By the way, that would be nasty. But if it's your setup, right, and if you if you understand this, you've tested this and you know that this works for you, then I have nothing to say.

I have literally nothing to say, then it's you should absolutely go for it 100%. I think the goal of this channel is to just not do things randomly. that that's like and I hope that I can teach you that as well that in case we want to be consistent we have to stop doing things too randomly too impulsively >> [laughter] >> Be careful with the copy and the setup. Yes, I will be I will be careful. Thank you so much, man.

Uh, does the same setup still make sense? I mean, of course, if you do break below the VWAP here and you know, then I would call this the inducement, but yeah, obviously right now it's kind of kind of off the table until that actually happens, right? If you would lose that level, totally. It isn't. It's It's a weird looking hourly candle, though. Not going to lie. It's a weird looking hourly candle. Ooh. That is already a 50% retracement of that camel.

Wow. 150 pips. That was quick. Uh yeah, let's make sure that we have our um value area connected. So we know where the value area low is. That's the most important part for us right now. The value area low of today. [snorts] But at the same time we have now that um depends where we close this 15 minute of course but we have that now [snorts] maybe acting as short support here. So I would still be looking at something like this really.

I think if we would get there if we would break below here I would still be looking at a sell if right if if if if we would do that. I would do that if you would do that. I would do that. Who is wash? W is the new uncle Jerome. The new Jerome Pal. Yeah, Jerome. Uncle Jerome is retired. He had seen enough. He's like, "You know what? Let's pack my bag right before the recession. Right before the recession, I packed my bags.

I've done my job. Let this this fool take over. No, he's not [ __ ] No, he's retired. He [music] stopped. He quit. He is retired now. He's not [ __ ] He's not He's He's a smart He's a smart guy. He knows exactly what to do, how to communicate things properly. Um it's a skill. It's a real skill. >> Absolutely. Okay. Well, anyways, close 50 minute. We did close back above this now. Somehow I'm still not a big fan of it at all.

Um, and I'm not really interested in L guys really. In this one hourly candle, of course, the FOMC candle here, uh, we had 52,000 contracts traded. Most of the volume happen happened sorry at the session VWAP of yet bardom yesterday and that volume was actually right there and yeah this hourly candle you know I I think there could be I'm not I'm not a big fan of it right now not a big fan of longs here today. Okay you can see we're getting rejected as well here the VWAP of yesterday is also right there.

So we would run straight into that resistance. >> So I hope I personally just hope that we can break below the VWAP today and sell off and and and target daily lows. I would feel the most comfortable trading that uh CV play that setup we talked about. That to me will be yeah the the best possible confirmation I think with uh with the highest conviction, highest win rate and it would still make sense if you would reclaim it.

Yeah. Yeah. That is also that area where yesterday those buyers constantly got rejected as well here. Funny enough. Funny how that works. That becomes resistance as well. Yeah, it made sense that we got rejected there. But now the question is, is this just going to be uh another attempt [snorts] one thing I do like later for later um is the fact that that's not for this session but for um I think next week especially if oil be stays [music] like this oil reads the monthly the supply zone.

Okay, oil is back at the monthly supply at the 106. So, oil is back at that major uh resistance again, that same level where we got rejected from in April and in March and in May before we sold off. So, that is an interesting level to watch right now for sure on oil for the future. Yeah. Yeah. I'm very happy that we don't rush into trades, right? Because that would have been nasty here. If you would waited for the u if you see that rejection, you think, "Ah, let's just try it early.

Let's just get in already." And then this happens. you get squeezed out and then maybe later it makes the actual move. You know what I mean? So that would be nasty if you get if you would get trapped into that move here. So yeah, that VWAP is just a very important thing. And by the way, uh besides the VWAP, there's also a low volume note here, right? That was still holding up and you don't really want to long in short into that either.

So that's why the value area low made so much more sense. It's just to wait for that level to be broken and then then short it down to 42 instead of trying to get in early here and then seeing this happening. You know, you know that the volume can come in at 9. It it happens pretty much every day now, which is good actually. I'm happy to see that. Um, usually before with the Asian sensors, we saw that the volume sometimes came in earlier, like out of nowhere, but now you could see that it's perfectly at 9 9 p.m. volume kicks in.

So, it's actually very nice. [snorts] Uh what about the current week? Yeah, we can check it out as well. We can do that. We can open up the open till the current price. And yeah, the low volume note indeed. You're right. The low volume note is indeed there. and another one there. Yeah, you're dealing with these two zones because you had that huge breakout here, right? Huge breakout and a huge sell off again. So, yeah, if price decides to continue to go higher, that is your resistance, right?

That's our new point of interest. If I would say the 27, the 27 Uh oil holding support dollar >> kind of in a range. yields are of course dropping or came down. Um, also finding some support I guess. Let me look at the Yeah, definitely came down here and then of course it shoots up during the FMC right there. Now we have the retracement of that What the [ __ ] are you waiting for? bread can kind of and go [ __ ] buy.

Uh, I have to follow my rules, my setup, my friend. Sorry. Yeah, >> I don't randomly enter trades, man. >> But you can buy, right? You can buy. >> I'm not I'm not here to to guide you. I'm not here to like, you know, tell you what to do. You can do whatever the [ __ ] you want. You [laughter] know what I mean? You can do whatever you want. I'm not your uh your your master. You know what I mean? possible sell 4315. What do you think?

Um the there is that low note there, but we're we're hovering up quite well right now. There's definitely momentum. This hourly candle is one big fat block without a bottom wick that shoots up starting at nine immediately. No bottom wick, just straight up. So it could be that in the next um couple minutes we'll see a little bit of a pullback. It could also mean that we have to come back to the very high of the week that we talked about, right?

The 25. Yeah, I mean that could be also an area For now, the market doesn't give us any any signs [snorts] of which I could potentially be involved in. I don't I don't personally see anything that aligns with what I'm looking at at the moment. Maybe right at the open there was a long setup like maybe at that moment in time there was like a long for example when we opened the market immediately at six right and we had the current week and we manipulated outside of the value area low of the current week.

So that was right here yesterday and we turned that into support right there. Um maybe something like this. Yeah, I need to push it push this back down here. Maybe something like this, right? Tapping into this then breaking above the value area high and then retested the V up maybe here. Okay, maybe around there. It was worth a try to then take a long at least towards this area to see okay what happens there. Maybe take profits there and leave the stop loss running on break even.

That could have been an entry, but that was just too early. After that, it was all about what would hap what would happen here. Would we reclaim the VWAP and so off that would be the case we'll be selling? Most definitely. But that is a point of interest for us. Why? Because it was just um you know a break out of the value area again, right? And this is where the point of interest come from. Those break out of these value areas and then the reclaims for example.

That is a that would that would be considered a long for me with high conviction like high conviction right there. But that was early. So that was not around the stream also. This was right at the open. Right at the open on the retracement. So, for me that was way too early. Uh, I'm living in Asia, but maybe if you were in, let's say, New York or if you live in the US or if you live in maybe Europe in the evening, late evening, you could have spotted that potential.

I think uh but until then, I think that uh it's pretty clear Uh let's see if the order flow is telling us right now. We are back at that same area. The hourly is going to reach it now. So watch what happens on the hourly. What's at the resistance here? I'm not pink script. My lungs already hit the P. I learned how to use the vo from you and I always use it with price action SMC. It helps me to find some good trades. Thank you for this live stream every day.

That's great to hear, man. Yeah, you can combine this. You can you can combine a vipo, I think, with other strategies as well if you want to. And I think the most important um thing that you can do is I think build your own playbook, build your own setups and follow those. Because if you have let's say if you take let's say 10 trades, right? Just think it from this perspective. If you take like 10 trades and each one of those 10 trades is different, how are you ever going to know long term, right, if that strategy, that setup is profitable or not?

Because then you have maybe 10 different setups and the variance will be too big, right? Because you're dealing with variance in the market, right? So then the variance will be too big and you can't control the variance. And if you can't control the variance, you can't control the outcome and you can't have the certainty that the data that you have is correct. >> You know what I mean? So that's why regardless um of your strategy, the tools that you use, maybe you use the Fibonacci, maybe you use ICT, whatever, right?

But at least have some sort of a playbook that allows you to then take those trades and only those and maybe there are five of them in different conditions. So you can trade every day, but take those that align with what you're looking for and then track it and you will see what happens when you do that. You will see what happens when you start doing that properly. and um and you give that around two or 3 months, I think you are a completely different trader.

Mito, I just want to know why he didn't took this clear long. It was a Vshape. Okay, so for example, a Vshape, right? Is that then is that that that's one confidence for example? Now you could do good my shadow for you. Okay. Then tell you, okay, if that's a setup, if that's a playbook to me, right, a V-shaped recovery, if that's a playbook to me, then I'm going to test that and I'm going to mark that and test that. I'm going to see how successful I am with that after 10 uh to 50 trades, let's say.

Now, there you have your answer. If it's worth taking around that, right? Then you have your answer. I personally have seven setups in total. So we have the low volume pullback. We have the CRC play momentum reversal, CME play momentum reversal. We have the range manipulation. Where is it? The range manipulation. Range manipulation. We take we took that trade yesterday and the range breakout and then the previous daily high breakout or the very low breakout.

Sorry, the value area breakout. Not very high previous daily area uh breakout. Okay. Stop laughing. Heat up here. Okay, we're already pushing to the very high of the current week. Wow. We need to mark out this level though. We need to already set this. Do you have dedicated videos on your seven setups? That's uh that's what I'm working on. That is what I'm working on indeed. The exact videos around those specific setups and setup.

Yeah, I will not talk about the order flow and things like that, but I will talk about the structure of the setups and stuff. Definitely How to spot the difference between manipulation versus real breakout from the very area without order flow. Um it's the it has a lot to do with the closures of the candles and the wicks that are formed. So you have to really formulate the wicks. This is actually something that you can look in my book for.

So actually the book that I gave you is actually created for you to have uh like a sequence or entry models without the order flow. Okay. The risk reward is usually a bit lower because you don't you cannot precisely with the order flow. With the order flow you can kind of see it very precisely. Um with this you need to kind of have a confirmation. So entry models they're sitting at page number 56 onwards. Okay. Execution are certain candle structures that you want to see happening at these areas.

Okay. You have an entry model one the double wick confirmation. Okay. entry model two which is a swing profile after after getting there on the lower T for the one minute and then entry model 3 is kind of like the manipulation like the range the smaller reversal play okay so you can get that book for free I've written it for you for all of you and there are no strings attached it pretty much shows you and then add your model 4 um so it pretty much shows you the the candle formation you can is where you don't need the order flow for which are actually proxies of the order flow if that makes sense.

So the proxies of it. So it's like looking at the order flow and then looking at the candles like how does the candles look like usually when you have that on the order flow. That's kind of the idea behind it, right? Is it always perfect? No, it's not without the order flow. But it is a guideline you know that you can use. Yeah. In reality the next resistance is just going to be there around the area between the 26 and the 30.

Okay. So, watch. We're going to watch this very very carefully. No, I I personally had no buys for me for myself, right, that I could that I actually could take here unless it would have been early at the open. So, my only opportunity for for a reaction here is is around this area in between the 26 and the 30. Okay. >> [music] >> What do you think of the VIP prof of a swing? Yeah, also very very effective. We've been using this a lot as well here.

That's why we're getting rejected right now at the moment. And we are in that zone that we talked about right now in the order flow. Right? So this is actually very important moment for gold to be to watch and see what happens here. That will be a trade back if you get the confirmation after the closure here. Uh that would be a trade back to the um Viva pretty much pretty much towards that area that we uh that we started right here roughly.

Yeah, we still have a lot of resistance though, right? Don't get me wrong. A lot of resistance, a lot of levels here. The low not the current week. We we have so much so many levels here up there. Would be very tough to break it. Uh, we're not going to wait for the Viva to be broken. We're going to trade towards the Viva. That's a kind different story. If I would wait now for the Viva to be broken, which actually also makes sense, by the way, for another trade.

If that would happen again, to be honest, it would make sense. But now the only gap is that area, right? Pretty much that initial push back. >> So that means that this area right now tracked it's the view of the previous uh day. It is the hourly zone where the most volume was traded inside of the FOMC candle. right there. Why right there? Why it's always that freaking box right there with the with the white line around this?

Cuz that's the point of control. And we're starting to see a lot of green bubbles. Not sure if you guys can see it, but it's very small. See a lot of green bubbles there. >> And the closure is heading uh or done in 2 minutes. How big is it though? 150 H. Yeah, it's just a pullback into into the point of control of of yesterday, the session VWAP and a lot of buying buyers trying to but failing with an overvaluation. Of course, we're already there now for a while.

So, it's good to see those green bubbles entering there. I like to see those green bubbles always at the top of a uh of a push. It shows that buyers are really trying heavily but failing kind of. Uh 44 seconds for that closure. I think we can give it a try. Trade it back towards the Vivat at least. Maybe set our stop loss and break even or sorry uh take some profits there and then uh because we we are dealing with with a counter trend [snorts] reaction. >> And that's a pretty clean target also.

Yeah. I think what I'm going to do is I'm going to try to set the limit at that area. or maybe enter the marketer now that we have set the top wick in I think I'm going to do that actually not rushing but it's just we have that candle the idea that we don't break the candle high right all right so we don't want to break it I think the risk should be roughly there the take profit should be roughly around um yeah I mean the point of control.

To be honest, I am tempted to see if we could get it lower to be really honest with you and maybe take profits at the VWAP and see what happens there cuz if you break it and this is just a retracement for the for the continuation. Let's say just the you know the top break retest and then the continuation kind of would be nasty as well right so I'm I will pay attention to this um to this area a And yeah, we're right in that zone, the session VWAP.

If we close above that though, then the next zone will be that area that we talked about on the 4hour time frame. uh the very high of the current week and the fixed very low of the range. But I'll probably already have the DB I already probably will be stopped out by that time and then I'll look for another entry later on. coconuts. >> Oh. If you break it, wag you tonight. Uh, [laughter] wag you every night. The rip eye.

[snorts] >> No, actually, um, yesterday I was eating, was it yesterday or two days ago? I was eating Indian cuisine. A lot of people have a lot of opinions about Indians, right? Well, there's one thing you can't talk about and that is their their cuisine. >> Certain things that are just on another level, man. Their food is one of them. I'm not talking about the street food. I'm talking about the high-end cuisine. It is actually very good.

Hallelujah. Yeah, it is very good. Surprisingly surprisingly good. Okay, I hope you can actually yeah continuously getting rejected. Most importantly, this is of course where the most buyers got stuck in their trade. Also, here you can see the buyers are trying. So, I reclaim above that of course would not be a good sign, right? It's better to get out and try again later at the top and then manage the risk and that's it.

One or two chances, but for now it is worth getting in here. See if we can take it back to the VWAP. Also uh the retracement to the VWAP is one thing but also a break below the VWAP is another thing of course and otherwise it's the current very high and the fixed very low and then wait for another another confirmation pretty What is your long-term goal prediction? I I think I want I want the dollar to be settling a little bit.

Same with the yields as well after the FOMC. kind of let the news come back or let the price action restore from the news and then look at the correlations etc and then make a better decision of what I think could happen with gold. Also I want to see how equity markets are performing you know things like that. I want to look at a couple different things right now at the moment. and then go from there pretty much to see what my long-term prediction is.

Do I what what do I want? I want gold to rip forever to the upside. Like that's what that's what I want. But hey, I want gold to break the alltime highs and continue to go higher because we know what gold what gold loves to do when gold does that, right? When gold breaks those freaking highs, it's unstoppable. There is no cap. There is no limit. FOMO kicks in. But we'll see. Give it some time. I want to see the equity market as well.

How are they developing? I think it's it will all have an impact right on where we stand. Yeah, again bars are trying but now failing again. So if you close below this level in the next 6 minutes then we're in a very good position honestly because that means that we have a triple top pretty much. with buyers trying to to buy and then failing to do so. So, I'm very curious to see how we close it. But it's I mean 6 minutes is still a long time, right?

The hourly closure as well. It's a long time. Why would we hit the BBI? Like I said before, either the VWAP number one, okay, which makes the most sense by the way, the VWAP right here, because you could exit the trade and then and look for another entry later. Instead of trying to hold on to the trade, you could also just exit it and then if price breaks it, look for a new entry. That might be the wisest decision actually cuz you then take a full DP.

You wait for an additional confirmation and you try you go again instead of holding on >> and then maybe it bounces and it just continues to go higher. So, It sh >> I hope this This is a freaking waterfall. That's what I hope actually right now before the hourly closure. It slid Sh. >> That's what I'm talking about. That's what I'm freaking talking about. Look at the order flow. Yeah, a lot of buyers at the top failing.

You see that? A lot of buyers. Also sellers stepping in here right at the PC of the of the of the F of sorry of the FOMC candle which is the swing point of control and an overvaluation of course at every at any moment we have to drop here. Sh. Had to be the right timing. And this is an actual setup, right? This is like the pullback scenario. In this case, the point of control, similar to a low volume, no pullback trade, but then the point of control. whereas this long was for me nothing that I could do personally, right?

This this made more sense. Um I will I will aggressively manage this though because we're dealing with the FOMC here. We're dealing with a couple of layers. We are getting already back towards this area right now. So here I already have to take profits at this box close to the VWAP. Oh, so it will not be a huge banger, but okay. It's good. Are we there? Almost there. The moment we're there, I have to take out some profits here.

It is a counter trend scenario. So, we take profits, too. That's why I can't wait for the trends. the trend range, the the actual trending markets because that's going to make all the difference with our riskreward. All the difference really. Okay. >> Let's do it. TP1 my friends and stopless to entry. Yes. Congratulations on another win. Patience always wins. Following your playbooks always wins. Don't let anyone else tell you what to do, how to trade, what to think.

Use the streams as a guideline. Don't let let it influence you too much. follow the uh try to understand really what what I'm trying to tell you here, okay? And why we're doing what we're doing here, why I'm trying to tell you how I see it. It's not that you have to do exactly what I do. It's just this is just an indication of how I prefer them to play the game here. TP1 50%. Uh counter trend market, right? So that's the rule.

Counter trend setup TP1 is mandatory when we are in an counter trend scenario and then stop loss on break even here right stop loss and break even sorry Just making sure. Is it all correct on MetaTrader? Yes, [snorts] I think it is correct. Perfect. Okay. Another one in the pocket, my friends. Yes, another one in the pocket. Let's see if this can continue to drop to the VWAP right now. The the difference is though, keep in mind the VWAP on the AXO charts is significantly uh higher.

So, I take that very serious and we will have support here. There's no doubt. This is why taking profit here is so important. But this was kind of the last big candle with the highest volume here. You see that 5.1,000 contracts right here and that is the PC of that. That's where the most far is traded and it aligns with the VWAP too. So you have to we have to take profits here. There's no there is no doubt that this is a TP1 right now.

Okay. So if you don't take profits this is your own uh again your own thought process. Follow your own rules, right? But this is an area where we could bounce from. Okay. So that's why TP1, do we want to hold on to it? Yes, we do because, you know, this could turn into the bigger runner in case this is indeed the the quote unquote. Yeah. The top right, the retracement and then the continuation down then that could turn bigger.

Yeah, it definitely could. So yeah, >> at least you have that in the pocket then and you're secured and um >> you waited patiently, right? >> Cool. I just want to dance. >> Yeah, once you have a little bit of a bankroll, right, it's, you know, it's quite nice. You can make $1,000 a day, right? You can do good um on average. Like the more you have, of course, the more you can make. You You can't always win every day, but it's the average, right?

We're talking about the average here. You're not going to win every day. But trading, it really changed my life for it. Really did. Uh this is not a counter trend in my opinion if that's the case. Yeah, I get your point. Uh but what I'm trying to say is that if I would trade let's say the um the continuation trend, let's say like this right here. Okay. Then what I will be looking at is the management of the breakout.

So in case I would take it a trade above the previous high which is between here and here then I would probably just let it run and let it scale even potentially skill in as well. But when it's the uh pullback, okay, and we haven't broken structure. So for example, if we would close below the VWAP and I would look for a new entry here, I would be holding on to the trade without taking profits. Let's say that makes sense.

But we are above the VBA. Okay. Yeah. Keep in mind this will be so important. What I do like though is the hourly candle. Uh pretty much the same thing here. We are at that major level here, right? So this will be support. So be be careful. I like to say it again. I think it's important to take profits here. Okay. I actually think it's important to to take profits around this area. I love to see those buyers here though being stuck in their position there. you know, buying the top pretty much.

All that buying. You saw those bubbles coming these. You see these bubbles? These small bubbles. That was very nice to see here. You see that? You don't really see it really well. Maybe. But these bubbles, they mean something. Green bubbles. We love to see our green bubbles. Aggressive buying at the top. But the candle closing bearish. That was our buy. That's why we sold. Sorry. We sold because we had our uh point of control.

Okay, we tapped into the point of control of the swing. That was one way. Okay, point of control of the swing. We had a retracement. We had to tap into the point of control. We then tapped into the VWAP of yesterday, the session VWAP of yesterday. Confluence number two. Confluence number three, we're overvalued against the dollar still. Com number four order flow a lot of aggressive buying candle closing bearish that means absorption.

So we wait for the closure and we entered short and now it's absolutely freaking tanking. So yeah TP is at the VWAP and reantry could be below it. Uh, which one is it though? The high or the close? It is the the close. Sorry, it's the close. Yeah. Watch what happens here real quick. Wow. This is a major major drop here, by the way. Damn. Like it meant nothing. Okay, we're at point control VWAP and the low. Not sure. I'm going to exit and I'm going to maybe look for re-entry.

So, that is a 40p right there, my friends. Congratulations. Congratulations. GG, my friends. That was a big uh big beautiful pullback. trade right there. Full TP hit at the Viva. >> Okay, sorry. That's why we don't look at the Viva on the um on the um sorry on the event this chart here. Viva point control of the current week. Uh policing control of the uh the day as well. Right. So, we have all those levels there. So that was the full TP here right there.

I have to follow up with um the VWAP right now. re-entries could happen below it again. So that that is also a possibility that we're just going to continue to drop right now and we're going to get back towards but what I would prefer now is to close below the VWAP also here a charts already and leave the value area low and the value area low is pretty much the value area low. We manipulated that very area high. Do you guys see that of today?

So we tapped into the very high. We kind of manipulated very high. We failed to break out and uh yeah, of course, we know why. Just just explained it. And now we have a new potential scenario for shorts when I think we would leave the value area off the path today. Pull back maybe into a low volume note here. a little pullback, a little confirmation that sellers are still in control and then target the previous daily lows like like we said already earlier this stream, beginning of the stream, but then as a second trade, why did I decide to exit?

Because there's a lot of support here. We have a low volume note there. We have a lot of support here. We could repull back again. It will be a waste to break even on the rest if you can re-enter with more conviction and still target another potential 400 pips after. Right. The the money that we made here right now on this trade is $1,600. Okay. Okay. So, we made $1,600 on this trade. So, that is exactly like if you would risk right now, if you if you have a new trade in mind, that would pretty much be a a risk-free trade, right? for another $4,000 potential gain, which I would not um I would not take profits because you break below the VWAP.

There's nothing really holding it back from then getting there. So yeah, let me check the MetaTrader as well here. Uh, hey, what happened there? Yeah. Okay. Makes sense. Makes total sense. Uh, how much was it? $1,600. Yes. $1,600. Oh, let me put it up this way. $1,600. Yeah. Beautiful. Beautiful. I count back at an alltime high. New alltime high. New records, new highs. Uh yeah, perfect. Why don't you place your stop loss there?

Uh because we don't have to. We take our profit here and then um there there are re-entry possibilities with another 400 pip move with an additional confirmation. So, um I prefer to get out at a crucial level right now cuz this was kind of like a count. This was kind of for me like a counter trend move here. This one right here was kind of like a counter trend move. So, I prefer to get out at crucial support or around crucial support.

And then if you would leave the value area of today, which is the developing value area, right? We talked about it before and we would leave the value area low. I would potentially re-enter the trade and then target the previous daily loss which is right at the bottom. Right? That is still a huge move but then more conviction everything aligning right. I hope that makes sense. [snorts] I hope that makes sense. Yeah. Okay.

So, I think that's it for today's session, guys. We keep the session short here. If we get our trade, we get our trade here. Uh I'm just take just one trade is for me enough on this stream. Okay. I hope you guys again enjoyed the process uh of being patient. I think a good lesson is to just uh don't listen to what everyone else thinks. I think that's the it's the biggest lesson. Okay. Why didn't you take this buy because of X and Y?

This Vshape reversal recovery. I see it too, right? But there are setups that you apply and there are setups that you apply. Okay, I have certain setups that I apply because I know them. I know them well. When I know them, I feel confident. I know the data behind it. I know what kind of risk to put on the table. Then I'm willing to take a trade. If I don't see it, I don't see it. Okay? And that's something that we just have to accept.

We're not chasing the market looking for every candle always trying to be in. It's about the those moments when it actually matters. Okay, that is what matters. The moments when it matters. Okay, those moments are those moments that you need to define because if you can define those moments, what are those moments for you? You're making big steps in your trading journey, your training career. All right. So, conclusion.

Um, what is another potential scenario? Potential trade. Now, um, you have the value area of today. Let's clean it up. Okay. We we know why we we took a trade here. Okay. It's a pretty evident setup right there. Right. We had the point of control. We had a lot of aggressive buying at the top right here. Whoop! A lot of aggressive buying, a green bubble. We had an overvaluation still. We were still overvoid, which was good.

We just had to wait for the right level. Orderflow confirmed it for us. Right of the FOMC candle, more sellers are entering the market now, which is good. And now we are dealing with the VWAP. Okay, now we're dealing with the daily profile. So, we take the opening to the current price and what are we bouncing at? What are we what are we reacting from right now? Let me know in the chat, my friends. What are we reacting from at this current moment? >> Let me know.

Let me know. Let me know. Let me know. the PC. Yes, sir. That's the PC of today. Okay. We're still above it. That's why I wanted to close there. Yeah. Okay. Now, we have the very high of today, the very low of today. What do we want to leave right now? What do we want to break? If you really want to be continuing bearish potential target daily lows right here, which would [music] make make sense if you would see that breaking.

Uh we do want to break below the VR low. Okay, so that's the 4,278. Okay, for now and we want to get rejected there. We want to see a candle of at least 15 minutes below it. And then we want to see a candle creating a top wick and flipping bearish. Now if you can do that then I think I will take another trade. Okay. And I target the previous daily lows right there. Then we have all that resistance or that support behind us that will turn into quote unquote resistance.

Okay. Right [music] here. That low volume note for example. Okay. that low volume note right there. Another one. So, we will break it. Okay. And then we'll look for contin I would look for a continuation short right there. Okay. So, that's why I think this was the perfect trade. Enter TP and then full TP. [music] And now maybe um a re-entry [music] in case we do what we said we wanted to see here again. And then target day loads right there pretty much.

Okay. Could it bounce? Could bounce. Who knows? But that's that's not that's none of our business right now. It's either that for me or u kind of nothing because this is a serious rejection right there. Okay. All right, guys. So, yeah, I am going to post those setups. I'm not going to talk about the order flow, right? I'll do that with the elite group. I will go deep into like the orderflow dynamics and more more other things as management and things like that.

But explaining those basic setups which I'm doing on the streams anyways already. I will make videos about them and post them in my Telegram group. So, you can join my free Telegram for that. It looks like it's a bit, but it's just I'm posting a lot of videos very soon. So, just pay attention, be patient with it because they are going to come, okay? It's just going to be a series of those setups that we're going to that we're going to look for um and then we're going to post right there.

There will be private videos on my on my channel. If you are completely new to this whole trading thing or to the vo profile that we use and it's a bit confusing to you the basis foundation or the foundational layers you can learn from my book that I've written for you it's a free book it is called the trading warm map okay you can look it up by volume analysis in chapter one go to the volume profile right you learn about the settings how to set it up what the settings are why and how it works why it reacts Now today, what did we see today?

The swing volume profile, right? [music] Now, the swing volume profile was exactly what we saw right here. Okay, the swing very, very low, the swing point of control. Do you see that? So, we had the swing, the range, right? the range, the push, the retracement, and then we took where did we took a short? Right there. Isn't that similar? Isn't that similar to what we just saw today? Right there. Yeah. Okay. Well, you can learn about it in the book here.

It's about as a basis to get the foundations going. Okay. It's not the gold hybrid training system. It's at the foundations of what you're going to learn. And it helps on the streams as well. If you're watching the streams, you know, oh, that's why and that's why and that's why and that's why, right? So, I think that will uh that will make a lot of uh that will make a lot of sense right there. Okay, congratulations. See, some of you guys in the elite took the trade as well.

I love it. Amazing. Okay, guys. Uh you know what to do and why we took profits here and if we would close by below, we'll take another one. But I hope you understand why we exited the trade right there. Yes. Good luck for today. Hopefully we uh we drop further. That would be nice. I would love to see a closure like that honestly. Okay. I honestly would love to see a closure like that as well here. But if we don't then um yeah, I mean we made our money right for the session.

That's matters right now. All right. Another day, man. Take care, guys. Have a great rest of your day. Um don't let anyone else tell you what to do. Follow your processes and keep putting in the work and you will get there. All right. Amazing. Much love, my friends. Take care. Where is that song? There we go. [music] Have a great day. Yeah. See you uh tomorrow, the last day of the week. All right. Ciao. [music] [music] >> [music] >> Oh yeah, please like this video.

It helps the algorithm, the business, etc. Here, you know what to do. Yeah. Thank you so much. Appreciate it. Heat. [music] Heat. [music] >> [music] >> again. I'm I [music] love [music] the night. Heat. Heat. [music] Let's [music] [music] move. [music] Talk about it. [music] Heat. [music] Heat. Heat. [music] [music] >> [music]